Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

someone elsewhere suggested to me that trading is closely watched by the sec.
yeah.
:” The report also alleges the two lawyers maintained separate folders entitled “stocks” in their e-mail accounts and that they often sent e-mails from their SEC account about stocks and their own transactions.

It is not clear whether this violates SEC rules.

One lawyer sent e-mails to his brother and sister-in-law from his SEC e-mail account during the work day recommending particular stocks and sometimes informing his relatives that the other lawyer had also recommended them, the report alleges.

Kotz’s office, which is investigating how the SEC handled the Bernard Madoff case, obtained and reviewed more than two years of e-mail records of the two SEC lawyers and the enforcement staffer. His office also reviewed their personnel folders and conduct folders.

An SEC spokesman said: “We note that the report neither accuses any SEC employee of insider trading nor concludes that any such conduct took place.”"

that’s how closely..

can an sec employee tell someone outside th sec that an investigation has been opened into somet ticker?
demanding tha that the info be made public violates “workin notes” protection on freedom in information.
that doesn’t mean that an sec employee cannot ask a hypothetical question of a lawyer associate over martinis at elaine’s
about a financial servies company’s possible soon to be 90% loss of mkt cap while absentmindedly and without intent doodling letters on a napkin.

in the market you have no friends.

john f kennedy: “where there is smoke, there is a smoke machine.”
up or down, before you know about it, somebody else does…and has already acted on their knowledge.

Popularity: 5% [?]

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the “testing” of the u.s. banking system having been “completed”, the idea that there is $75 billion hole to be filled was met by the idea that banks ahould sell stock before people realise it’s overpriced.

“U.S. banks are racing to tap equity markets that have soared since early March and may pull back soon, analysts said. Bank of America said it plans to sell 1.25 billion shares to help meet its $33.9 billion equity capital shortfall.

“You have this opportunity to sell equity now, and if you don’t and share prices fall, people will criticize you,” said William Smith, chief executive officer of Smith Asset Management.”

ok. sell stock while its overpriced or get criticised. who are these critics?
probably not the people who bought at the high price.
but then, they are the sheep, and as was noted in the maginicient 7, “of God did not want them shorn, why did He make them sheep?”
how is stealing from new shareholders a duty of an equity? cause cut thru the nonsense and that’s what it is. “sell it before somebody figures out the price is too high.” it is refreshing that an “asset manager” is saying this publicly. so, ask yourself, “is he a potential buyer or a current owner?” ad youmight get a different impulse than to run right out and buy more of anything known to be selling above a fair value estimate.

People playing biotechs and “internet” stocks might wish to be aware that rbs used to be a serious funder of such flyers, but:
“Royal Bank of Scotland, now 70 percent state-owned, fell to a loss in the first three months of 2009 after bad debts quadrupled to 2.9 billion and it took a 2.1 billion pound writedown on risky assets.”

what are “risky assets”? a good place for traders to measure is d/e, and debt terms.
what are creditors willing to take in stock to balance the books? unless you can afford to take more risks than an investment bank, you probably want to pay less than creditors will accept.

that can be done by “trading into accumulation.” it is in fact what many of the ibs do along with their direct involvement to make sure they profit.

Popularity: 7% [?]

Technorati Tags: bank of america, biotech, duty, filings, fraud, rbs, royal bank of scotland, sheep, theft

Posted under business

Rolling Stone, which has almost redeemed itself by paying attention to the economy for a change, had a recent article about the insiders from goldman-sachs taking a large bite out of the future faith and cresit of the government of the usa. sadly enough, as part of its maintaining its perpetual whininess, it describes some evil plot in which people who cannot put “credit default swap” into an intelligible sentence are being picked on by people who can.
my answer to those who complain that they do know what a toxic debenture is? learn or shut up. if people can be bothered to “research” the love lives of stevie nicks and lindsey buckingham, they can learn to keep track of how the economy works.

When the prudent speculator is testing a story stock, it is usually quite useful to look for so-called stock boards, like
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/BTIM.OB
where the legitimacy of the views being put forth by present holders can be tested.
another might be:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/community/message/topicsandtickers.asp?Symbol=BTIM
o. look. msn doesn’t bother with stocks kicked off the national exchanges and lurking around on bulletin boards.
john f. kennedy once said about lobbyists of varying kinds, “where there is smoke there is a smoke machine.”
on penny stocks there is an entire smoke industry (which oddly enough, does not ave an naics number). a way to hunt down the smoke from the fire is to look in filings for “investment services” being documented with transfers of stock or cash (sometimes both) t create “buzz.” that buzz will first go to preferred suckers on the phone, then to less preferred subscribers to “investment letters” and once that’s in place, then to whatever stock board or chat room somebody can post to.
a clue to such posters is that they generally refer to any discussion of th story or the fundamentals  as “paid bashing” by “evil shorts” etc.
the saddest cases happen when somebody who thinks equities trading is like football fandom becomes a brain dead cheerleader for the story, and continually hhypes about some future price, like..5, or 12..or “when the puppy is on the nasdaq national market” and offers that as the only dd he has. thirty years ago, when penn state et al were starting the snowball rolling, fleetwood mac sang about breaking a chain,  a story believed without due diligence.

Popularity: 7% [?]

Technorati Tags: 10k, 8k, Bailout, chain, goldman-sachs, nasdaq, rolling stone

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i rceived an email a couple ago asking, basedon a conversation elsewhere, what i meant by ” shake and bake” –was i referencing talladega nights?

nope. the termpredates that movie by a decade.
let’s explain:
so, mm’s see a surge tomorrow on ticker abcd:nasd.nm. how? because sallimay, the daughter of the ceo told her sorority sister, the daughter of the hedge fund manager, that she was going to shopping for a new beemer on saturday.
(don;t think that happens? i once had an associate who was chief of security for a rather expensive private college, who did his most successul trades based on whether visiting parents, who were all ceo/cfo/coo/etc types were smiling or somber whe they greeted their daughters.)
the mm can see, on his screen that there are a total of 100k shares hanging in the float wth limit sells, and stop loss orders.
let’s say abcd is trading at 15, and there are stops in all the way down to 10. a stop loss at 13 5/8 will execute at 8, if that’s the clear (the “market”), and there’s a buyer. so.. he offers to buy 80k @ 8, and sell 1k at 12, 1k at 11, 1k @ 10, 1k @ 8 1/16. somebody elsewhere (like me) has a limit buy, 1k @ 8 1/8.
as soon as the “enter” button gets hit, the domios fall, and all 100k of stop losses kick in, looking for a buyer. why? becuase that 1k @ 8 1/15 sell hit my buy 1k @ 8 1/8.
the mm is now short 1k, but, if there are not limit buys in for 99k more between 8 1/8 and 13 5/8, all those stop losses are going to pour into the mm’s account.
and 2 minures later the whole thing is over.
and that’s shake and bake.
think things like that never happen? tat the markets are not that corrupt? that hedger fnd managers are your freinds? that ur broker is looking out for you? that that hypster on a stock board cares about the company? that the regulators will prevent this?
ok. keep beleiving it. or else note:

as stp loss order kick in and the machines talk to themselves

then read the chage in “analysts” lol…”sentiment” today.

Popularity: 8% [?]

Technorati Tags: biotech, dndn, market maker, market manipulation, market reform, stem cell research, stock market speculation

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someone suggested to me that i was paid to bash biotime (btim.ob). i replied that the paid bashing on the net was being done by steven seinberg, chief financial officer (cfo) of biotime, in posts to the securities and exchange commission.  it is of interest possibly to note that  some anonymous person publicly stated a day or 4 ago that biotime was about to receive a $5mm grant.  That’s the kind of world where bucket shops and boiler rooms thrive: people doing honest analysis must be “paid bashers” while people doing mindless and dishonest cheerleading to protect teir positions are considered “loyal shareholders.”
here’s an example f what i mean:

the 8k filed on 0417 describing what happened on 0415:

The maturity date of our Revolving Line of Credit has been extended to December 1, 2009 with respect to $2,669,282 in principal amount of loans. (a revolving line of credit for $2.669mm got a new date, 7 1/2 month away.)

“We repaid $223,834 of principal and accrued interest on loans that matured on April 15, 2009 and were not extended.
(some part of the credit line was shut off, and paid out. does biotime bother to be honest enough to say which part?)

” In addition, certain lenders exercised their right to exchange $572,404 of principal and accrued interest on loans for an aggregate of 473,131 of our common shares.”
Does biotime bother to say how much of the $572k was principal and how much interest?  some loans were at 12%.
if one speculates that 12% is the figure, and 1 year the time period, then the lender lost oportunity for 1 year on apx $511k, and then was traded for 473k shares, for a basis of 1 3/32 ish…. ($1.08).
And actually, its worse than that. How??
becuase, to use a term from aother world, biotime had to pay vigourish on the loan. it was forced to give for free  91,526 shares, based on a 6% iterest rate, to the lenders.
91,526 is therefore 6% of what? 6% of the $2mm comes to $160,156. and that converts to 91,256 shares how? on a basis of 1 3/4 ($1.75 a share).
does this sound like an invented number?
biotime identifies this number:
“Promissory notes that were exchangeable for our common shares at a price of $1.50 and Embryome Sciences common stock at $2.50 until April 15, 2009, may now be exchanged for our common shares at $1.75 per share”
and i offer that as evidence of the soundness of this analysis.

a coupl;e of days later 14ds were filed with the sec, and the movement from the dtc to the recipients had to cross the tape. it crossed it at prevailing prices f the moment, cuasing some to see a “rally” which they traded into and or out of.
However, the idea that the buyers actually paid anything more than is stated above is a fiction.
Biotime would, imho, have a moral and fiduciary duty to identify it as a fiction.
Did it?
ask the reporters who called (or were they called??) what the ceo, dr michael west said.
then the prudent speculator has a metric for the integrity of the “science” of biotime.

the “good news” in this 8 k is that the exchange price isn;t 16 cents.
the hoest news is that this is the 5th amendment to a credit agreement that is nowhere near being retired, and there is no evidence in the 10k as to how it ever will be.
bottom line?
people buying biotime stock are not buying equity in biotime, bcuase there is no equity except patents 1/2 way thru their life.  they are supporting the acquisition of biotime by al kingsley and neal bradshear, who are paying next to nothing for it.

” We may borrow up to an additional $830,718 under our revolving line of credit if we elect to do so and are able to obtain additional loan commitments from our current lender or from new lenders.”

notice how bio time cannot, unnder thee covenenants borrow $1 mm from somebody new.
notice how biotime evidently needs permission from the current creditors to eve look for financing, up to the $830 mark.

Popularity: 10% [?]

Technorati Tags: 10k, 8k, biotec, biotime, credit collapse, Dr. michael west, market manipulation, sec, securities and exchange commission, stem cell research, stem cells

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i got an email asking me for a claitrification of a posting to a yhoo board concerning what tokyo mex woulda called a “whore stock”.
those who wish to become proudent speculators might not understand this one. so, let’s go thru it:
:” >>no ticker<< gets very far away from its next years eps x inverse of the long for more than a couple years, without a harrrdddd correction following.”
ticker–that is, symbol for a publicly traded entity. generally, “shareholders” actually own nothing except the perceived trading floor “value” of the ticker.
(and if you don’t beleive that, find out what happened to preferred stock of things like gblx and wcom.)
the market aniticipates: that is, it makes bets. otherwise the “value” of a stock would be no more than the “book” value. “next year’s earnings” is something to bet on.
if a ticker’s stated earnings go up on a steady course, one can speculate that the perceived value will go up as well.
even in the wildest markets, there is a certain baseline: what can i do that will not lose any money?
so, if a long term government bond pays 3%, (and thereby double in nominative value every 24 years, no matter what happens) and the speculator looks for a way to beat doing nothing, then, if the price to earnings ratio current on a stock is 25, then 25/1 x 1/33 = >1.

if the “long bond” paid 4%, it would be a wash: 25/1 x 1/25 = 1.
the prudent speculator will then hold the bond.
what about inflation? this fear drives people to hold the ticker, because “wait til next year” means that earnings will be “handsome” and therefore (wha???? rotfl)
the p/e will be, let’s call it 10, meaning the bond would have to pay 10% to be even. could that bond pay 10%?? yeah, if the fed is trying to push $$$ away from stupid losing speculations, and impose some sense of reality.
so, if the long bond can be guessed to stay around 3%, then tickers showing earnings that stay or grow can be selling at  p/e of 33.
if a tickers has a p/e of 0, because there are no earnings, a guess can be made about the future. let’s say a company has 25 million shares outstanding, has expenses (including debt service) of $5mm. the company says that next year it will take in 5 million in revenue. it’ p/e is still 0.
let’s pretend it says it will use that money to make 10 million more. now the guess is that 2 years out it will have $10mm going first to $5mm expense, and $5mm to ticker, for a earings per share of ?? 7/32.
times 33?
ooooo.. now it might could possibly, cross ur fingers and sacrifice a rooster, get close to 7.
provided its expenses while doubling its inflow of cash do not go up one penny.
can that happen???
only on forums where penny stock hypers stalk about inventions and science, and anything else to get you to buy the stock they are ready to sell.
new companies have “storys” to tell you.
companies around for more than about 5 years should have “results.”
it’s the results that will show on the ticker, tomorrow, or the next day..maybe next year. but they will show up on the ticker, long after the glitter fades.

Popularity: 8% [?]

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The prudent speculator will generally listen to what management states as goals.
Somwhere in the s3 there will be something about “we intend to make widgets. there are already widgets out there, and so we may not succeed. we expect to succeed because we have a new way to make widgets.”

Under sec law, random people may attempt to raise a $million under a 504, which functionally only needs to state the goals of raising a mil for some purpose to be later identified.

Generally, people become medical doctors to practice medicine, and people get nasdaq licenses in order to move stock on the nasdaq.

Interestingly enough, as part of the cloning/stemcell/corpsicle, infuse groundgog genes into the brain thinking of the collateral group around dr west of biotime, there is another hybrid:

:”One of the main goals this year for West is to get BioTime traded on either the American or Nasdaq stock exchange.”

http://www.insidebayarea.com/business/ci_12211685

The prudent speculator might think the main goals of a deeply in the hole biotec would be to develop product and revenue stream. That’s one of those antique ben graham ideas that the modern trader knows to avoid. the goal of a development stage biotech is to sell stock, even if it’s been a development stage company for 17 years; actually, especially then.

The prudent speculator might think that a ceo who doesn’t clarify for the press that a “purchase” of shares recorded in a 14d was actually the registration of shares granted as a penalty for failure to meet loan covenants, and as a result as at a basis of 0.

The prudent speculator might think that when the ceo, dr. west, states that
“We’re optimistic that we’re going to be handsomely profitable in a short while,” and is talking about a company that was required to tell the sec in a 10k that if it didn’t refinance debt and obtain further on april 15, it would not be able to continue operations, and told the sec in an 8k on april 17th that its net credit lines had not fundamentally changed, and had had to issue free stock as a penalty, that the “handsome profits” come from selling stock, not from doing biotech product development, especially if said cmpany had once before had a board member (ron barkin, former attorney) publicly state earnings estimates based on a mix if sheer fantasy (instant full market acceptance for off label use) that would be priced in violation of fda guidelines concerning pricing equivalent product.
barkin was gone shortly after that.
how much longer will dr. west and his secrets of immortiality be hanging aorund alameda?

Popularity: 8% [?]

Technorati Tags: biotime, day trading, Dr. michael west, honest reporting, sec rules, sotck trading, stem cell research

Posted under business

According to biotime sec filings (btim.ob)

:”Current loans under the Credit Agreement bear interest at the rate of 12% per annum and will mature on April 15, 2009, at which time the outstanding principal balance of the loans plus accrued interest will be due and payable. Our ability to continue in operation depends on our obtaining a renewal of the Credit Agreement that will extend the maturity date of the loan and increase the amount of credit available to us.”

so, it is now april 16th. yesterday, the market reacted intelligently to the known facts (thew ones that deny the nonsense of obama= stem cells = west = btim biotime = $$$).

let’s compare this puppy to the largest commercial real estate fir in the usa:
:”"When we did not achieve the necessary amount of agreement on the bond solicitation, at that point we recognized that it was conceivable that we would not get the time outside of bankruptcy that we had hoped for to work on a restructuring,” General Growth President Thomas Nolan told Reuters.”

has biotime bothered to tell the 4500 or so shareholder anything about , generically, “how it’s going” ?
well. no.
that woiuld be silly.
they got the shareholders money. well, no..they didn’t.
the insiders got the shareholders $$$ by being able to short an open box; thereby regaining their risk capital and absorbing, steadily, all of the financioal advantage.
wo else benefits?
let’s go back to the mall bankruptcy:
:”"We will see a significant rise in delinquent and defaulted mortgages in commercial real estate above and beyond what we already experienced,” said Sam Chandan, president and chief economist at research firm Real Estate Economics”
this is something that might be less true in the swams near san francisco where biotime shareholders have spent a largish amount of money in a locked lease that contrbutes to real estate profits, not bodily health.

a fast look at an overly simple 5 day chart gives some clues:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BTIM.OB&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

imho the fact that btiome could not successfully publish to the sec and the public the reults of the negotiations which it stated must be completed by april 15
says that biotime is playing a losuing hand and willfully misrepresenting itself to the “investor” who will fall for the pitch.
the prudent speculator will require some transparency, and stay away until that transparency is present.

Popularity: 10% [?]

Technorati Tags: biotime, day trading, ethical investing, nasdaq, prudent speculator

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here are the highlights of the 10k–which came out amazingly “early”. of course that can have nothing to do with my woofing about the biotime habit of waiting til the last minute.
The number of common shares outstanding as of February 26, 2009 was 25,213,569
that’s a 3 million share increase.
“As of March 10, 2009, there were 6,676 holders of the common shares”
was that increase in authorised discussed at the last annual meeting?
when was the last annual meeting?
“We intend to submit that amendment to our shareholders for approval at our next annual meeting.”
:” Management’s report was not subject to attestation by our registered public accounting firm pursuant to temporary rules of the Securities and Exchange Commission that permit us to provide only management’s report in this annual report.”
lolol…
for thoughts on accounting and filing with the sec, see
http://baltbear-on-finance.com/stock-market-speculating-is-a-hold-up-shoot-them-with-x-barrels

and  lookie lookie…some amusing info about “big al’s basis”. wunderbar:
:”We paid Greenbelt $90,000 in cash and issued 200,000 common shares for services rendered for the twelve months ending March 31, 2007.  Greenbelt permitted us to defer until October 2007 paying certain cash fees that otherwise would have been payable earlier in the year.  In return for allowing the deferral, we issued Greenbelt an additional 60,000 common shares.  For the 2008 calendar year, we agreed to pay Greenbelt $135,000 in cash and to issue 300,000 common shares.  Greenbelt permitted us to defer paying the entire $135,000 cash fee until January 2009.  In return for allowing the deferral, we issued Greenbelt an additional 60,000 common shares during January 2009.  We have agreed to file a registration statement, at our expense, to register Greenbelt’s shares for sale under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, upon Greenbelt’s request.  We also agreed to indemnify Greenbelt and its officers, affiliates, employees, agents, assignees, and controlling person from any liabilities arising out of or in connection with actions taken on our behalf under the agreement.

ok, 620k share at a basis of…..zero.
zero.

and: $225,000 in cash.
so, here’s the algebra problem:
a train leaves the nasdaq at 9:30 in the morning with 620k shares which can be sold at any price at all, and bought back at any price less than sold for;
a train leaves park avenue with $225k cash
to buy stock at any price and sell it for any amount more than was paid for;
what is big al’s  basis?
the answer?? 0 on more and more of the shares in his control+ 9% profit after trip tickets are paid for+ $225,000 in cash.
extra credit question:
if late comers to biotime should have to pay 4x more than al pays, what should be their basis?

Since inception, we have primarily financed our operations through the sale of equity securities, licensing fees, royalties on product sales by our licensees, and borrowings.

our total research and development expenditures were approximately $1,700,000 and our administrative expenditures were approximately $2,600,000.
The Credit Agreement permits us to borrow up to $3,500,000, and as of March 6, 2009, BioTime had outstanding Credit Agreement loans of $3,330,000.

Current loans under the Credit Agreement bear interest at the rate of 12% per annum and will mature on April 15, 2009, at which time the outstanding principal balance of the loans plus accrued interest will be due and payable.

Currently, lenders may exchange their notes for our common shares at prices ranging from $1.25 to $1.50 per share,

and our ability to commence and complete the clinical trials that are required in order for us to obtain FDA and foreign regulatory approval of products, depend upon the amount of money we have.

so, taking “big al” lol..out of th equation, what is there for fair market price in the opinion of those who have access to serious due diligence???
1 1/4–1 1/2 ….divided by 1.12.

hmmmm.
that put’s a price amusingly close to 1 3/8..which got defended as a raw marker…
and verrry close to 1 5/32….right where the defense kicked in.

so, those who see that hextend >>>works<<< and give a dang aobut that;
who see that hetacool therefore >>might work<<;
who think that “dr west” matters one way or the other;
and who can overlook an over 20 year trip to the gorss receipts level, and overlook the r&d/g&a of this puppy;
now know what price to pay.
there are 2 ways to pay it:
call them up and ask when they are getting ready for the next level of dilution (which is alread oocurring by seling embryome stock)
or trade this puppy into accumulation s that u end up with shares closer to “big al’s” basis.
so..what is big al’s basis???

anybody notice what this burst of news, did for volume?? 9k thru 2 pm…another 7k tossed back and forth in the last 30 minutes to to create illusion?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BTIM.OB#chart2:symbol=btim.ob;range=1d;indicator=bollinger+ema(20,50,10)+psar+ke_it+volume+rsi+volumema(10);charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
anybody notice that the whole “sector” as a “story” play now rests on the spines of 8 rats?

Popularity: 13% [?]

Technorati Tags: 10k, annual reports, audits, biotime, due diligence, profit projection, reading reports, sec

Posted under finance

the Federal government is contemplating spending up to $7.2 bb in funding to improve internet connectivity in the usa, to perhaps bring it u to the lvel of iceland, or nigeria.
Being as competent as the french is something evidently beyond the asirations of the telecom providers to that 3 hours in between manhattan and hollywood.
what is the objection these government protected entities ave to being told to perform according to some meaningful minimum guideline?
:”"Speed is a movable target,” said Dave Malfara, speaking for Comptel, an industry group that represents smaller rivals to companies such as AT&T Inc.

“One of the fears that we have is that a definition would be too high” and the cost of providing such fast service would eat into profits, he said at a public meeting on the funding.”

As soon as someone can explain to me how a subsidy eats into profits, i’m prepared to listen.

In the meantime, haing been a CEntryTEl customer back when it felt it had to compete with compuserve and aol, ad forced itself up to the level that my 33.6k modem actually had something to do, i am unsympathetic to the idea “speed is a movable target.”
“speed” is something rural people are frequently whipping up a batch of while they wait for their files to upload.
Anybody care about telecommuting, broadband TV, or virtualised work environments?
only those who don;t want to learn chinese, so they ca talk to the boss.
the job of any government since the day when hammurabi said irrigation ditches had to be maintained is to set minimum standards that allow for wealth creation, and the ability to rise through the class ranks.
people may or may not recall that the fraudulent recalcitrance of the “mom&pop” telecom to obey Federal law on dial tone access is the principal reason wcom had to cook the books waiting for legal compliance to allow its business plan to unfold.
they may recall that just beore the end, world com could begi to offer $50 a month “all u can eat” telecom in indiana, and then elsewhere, as state utilities commissios could no longer invent excuses for non-compliance.
in the midst of the current liquidity crisus, wouldn’t it be nice to not set the next chokehold into place??
measure a t1 cable. it’s gee…virtually the same size as a 7600 baud line.

so if i can get 10 mips in a rome coffee house, why not 2mbps on any land line in the usa?
o yeah…profits…to the protected few.
funny, i thought crony capitalism was out of fashion.

Popularity: 100% [?]

Technorati Tags: communication, crony capitalism, federal aid, fraud profits, teleco, telecom, world com

Posted under business