Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

Richard Edelman, the pr king says that the banking system has a “pr” problem, sicne most people will not do the dd to understand the economy in which they participate.

Allen Sherter, who many will recall from Thompson Financial, thinks that the problem is n reality a mis-match of power in how the public and private interests intersect.

As soon as the dialog points to “spheres of power” rather than shared interests, the point fails.
“Credit” is a method for building a belief system. Securitization has been part of commerce for nearly 3000 years.
Goldman Sachs correctly predicted a range of predictions made by others were unbelievable, based on lack of transparency.
The real question is how governance failed in both public and private sectors.
The “pr” problem here belongs to the political strategists who will spin for clients how it is that “we have met the enemy and he is us” is a true statement, excepting the candidate.

What does this have to do with the prudent speculator??
1. transparency;
2. invention of artificial instruments      which allegedly have a determinable value without run testing;
3. getting conned into us/them thinking by boiler room  touts and paid commentators.
4. recognising that sec filings are the first place for dd, and that if the ticker you’re thinking about them isn’t transparent and timely in those filings, whatever else you hear is paid spin. If the filings are timely and transparent, then only 2/3 of what you hear will be spin.
..and connecting solidly with the ball 1/3 of the time can head you to the hall of fame. especially when the market puts no burden on letting the pitch go by.

Posted under business

elsewhere a few boiler room employees and random people who do not yet understand that “the stock doesn’t know you own it”– peter lynch’s classic paraphrase of the principal of insufficient reason–have been paraphrasing my thoughts about the plan by which btiotime (btim.ob) stays in business.

these hypesters maintain that i said biotime (btim.ob) has no business plan. that’s not anything i have ever said at all. but then hypesters exist to push the greed inverse of fud.

so, for the “record”, here is the summary of biotime’s nusainess plan from inception to now, with michael west, the “stem cell guy” at the purported helm, although al (outboard al, twa al, bethlehem steel kingsley) is actually now running the shoppe.

i have never sad that btim has no bizness plan.

the plan, according to btim, as stated in its filings is:

1. license patent estates and repackage them; (being done)
2. license software  for the building of a clearing house for stem cell info; (done);
3. develop a line of reagents and tools for biomedical research (in progress)
4. sell stock to fund the inner circle (being done more and more)
5. use the buzz to get listed on nasd or..lol..amex… (in progress)
6. hire boiler rooms to pump (done regularly);
7. increase financiers’ net $$ and % without risk (every year since 96)
8. sell stem cells (been being done for over a year without report of any sales)
9. cash checks from hextend license and distribute to financiers  to keep the door open,(done every year from 2000 to april this year);
10. get grants, and do work once the $$ are in hand; (limited success with hextend (<$1mm since 2000, studies evidently failed since there was no follow up) $1.6mm a year for 3 years offered by california for stem cells. six month after grant authorised, no reports of money received, but a statement from btim that with $4mm in the bank thy will do no work on th grant project til cash in hand, even tho the grant is for the core of their held-out biz strategy.
11. spin off “subsidiaries) that allow the financers to profit w/o very low risk;
12. use warrants as a play pretty to manipulate the borrow and bring in cash to the treasury (maybe 5 or 6 times in 12 years);
13. paint the tape.

how well is this plan working??
for those who like the story and understand this puppy is about 1% as solid as fnm, i’d suggest a tonne of limit orders ~4, and get out anywhere north of 5 that makes you happy.
that’s 25%. or, if u really like this puppy, open up the limits in a widening ram from 4 7/16, and taper i out over 5 1/4… for 25% plus some free shares.
…since that’s what the players here have been doing since… hmmm…. ‘96???
what was it that happened in 96? that’s about when biotime started paying al kingsley for “advice.”

Posted under business

For those prudent speculators who know that hind sight and fore sight both have value as lenses, there was disturbing news today: Blackstone wants out of part of its health care and energy ports.
kkr is getting rid of dollar general.
(did you know that all those dollar general stores sprinkled into all the small towns and neighborhoods where wmt won’t go or has left are part of the lbo monster?)
This whole tactic is being spun as gaining liquidity, freeing opportunity, and allowing greater participation.
The prudent speculator can read that as “old insiders wanting to cash out, present holding are in stalled growth, and finding fish who will bite.”
While the soon to be traded nyse:kkr, and its present proxy, nyse:kfn are, imho, well worth looking at as basket plays for a long term recovery, and there are the occasional clients who did well by listening to me in march, and now have a free ride and some $roi, the worrisome factor here is that both blackstone and kkr feel some serious need for loose cash.
that indicates that they see some bottom feeding to be done, and that parts of healthcare, retail, and energy are gettihg ready to stall.
personally, i am a major fan of “stalled petro” and gasoline getting locked by shrinking demand and higher taxes @ $2.37 - $2.63.
removing access to irrationally cheap chinese imports? also a good idea. (but..what part of the move out of dollar general comes from us/chinese currency adjustments and the ensuing “price inflation” on bottom end goods??)
skimming health care salaries? hmmmm..
if there was less to skim, the sink hole that is absorbing 20% of gdp might stop growing so fast.
The upside of all this is that these two bottom feeding sharks will be looking for small, distressed but nimble places to play.
The prudent speculator will be watching with another eye for the places these 2 are looking.

Posted under business