Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

back a few motnhs ago i cleaned up a pile of hypester garbage about news vs actual business filings.

the concrete example was btim:amex.

going into 2010, with  afresh pump in place, it’s time to revisit and revise.

the plan, according to btim, as stated in its filings is:

1. license patent estates and repackage them; (being done) –still being done.
2. license software  for the building of a clearing house for stem cell info; (done); -progressing towards possible cash flow…unknown amounts.
3. develop a line of reagents and tools for biomedical research (in progress) progressing with cell lines actually actually for sale thru mil, allowing speculators to get actual numbers about 041510. this is being spun by hypsters as a separate subsidiary. a pr firm is doing the work..demonstrating that this is “news” and not events.
4. sell stock to fund the inner circle (being done more and more) and more and more, most recently with a plan to give insiders another free ride to a take under.
5. use the buzz to get listed on nasd or..lol..amex… (in progress) done. and advertised world wide by having gthe ceo ring the bell at the opening, making world tv the same day. so “under the radar” is gone as an excuse.
6. hire boiler rooms to pump (done regularly); being done afresh for 2010
7. increase financiers’ net $$ and % without risk (every year since 96) again.
8. sell stem cells (been being done for over a year without report of any sales) 6+ lines now in the mil catalog
9. cash checks from hextend license and distribute to financiers  to keep the door open,(done every year from 2000 to april this year); yup.
10. get grants, and do work once the $$ are in hand; (limited success with hextend (<$1mm since 2000, studies evidently failed since there was no follow up) $1.6mm a year for 3 years offered by california for stem cells. six month after grant authorised, no reports of money received, but a statement from btim that with $4mm in the bank thy will do no work on th grant project til cash in hand, even tho the grant is for the core of their held-out biz strategy. first check rec’d in october. $ spent hiring people who can actually do the work whiloe mikey talks about it.
11. spin off “subsidiaries) that allow the financers to profit w/o very low risk; accelerating with a paper game called “oncocyte” which was created as a paper shell for the p[urpose of giving new finance insiders a free ride. possibly progressing towards a pump&dump for 2010 autumn.
12. use warrants as a play pretty to manipulate the borrow and bring in cash to the treasury (maybe 5 or 6 times in 12 years); still seems to be happening, especially with btim executing a forced conversion as announced by one of the pumpers working on the inside.
13. paint the tape. hasn;t been done for a while…but will be a side effect of the warrant game mentioned above.

how well is this plan working??
for those who like the story and understand this puppy is about 1% as solid as fnm, i’d suggest a tonne of limit orders ~4, and get out anywhere north of 5 that makes you happy. that can now be moved to closer to 4 1/2, giving a tighter range where shares can be accumulated cheap by trading into accumulation.
that’s 25%. or, if u really like this puppy, open up the limits in a widening ram from 4 7/16, and taper i out over 5 1/4… for 25% plus some free shares. shorts can treat this puppy like a chew toy at 6+..but it appears that btim will be giving them help on getting there, during february. pumpers and hypesters will be working to get it above 2009 hi of 6 15/16. since shorts see the same pump news, they will be waiting.
…since that’s what the players here have been doing since… hmmm…. ‘96??? the pattern will stay in effect, since there will be no evidence of anything like revenues til 041510… at that point a speculation can be made about what kind of future btim can have without selling paper and hype.  the 1st quarter revs, minus anything from hextend, can be divided by 6, multiplied by 26 (that gives optimism for cell lines coming into the mil catalog) multiplied by 1.2 for a slow ramp, and then by 5–as a further pad on the ramp–giving a guess at annual revs for the next 2 years. as soon as such a speculation gets close to full g&a, btim stops being a development stage co–after only 18 years–and becomes a biotech r&d house.
what was it that happened in 96? that’s about when biotime started paying al kingsley for “advice.” that’s still going on. as a result, prudent speculators whoi like this puppy wil ltrade to get their basis as close to his as possible, since ak (as bethlehem steel and outboard marine testify) is working for himself–not the company, and not holders of the meaningless paper that is btim common. hypsters will continue to do anything they can to cloud that reality. the idea that speculators can live on the scraps tossed by predators does noty apply when the predators are hyenas with their own inhouse vultures.

Posted under business, social

those following fnm as a proxy for the economy (and who followed my suggdstions on it)
re-acuired a chunk of fnm when it broke back below $1.
one dollar is a magic marker for fnm. currently it is trading  just under 1 3/16. (new readers are asked to note that i still run charts by the normative trasing currency, the “bit”: 1/8 of $1.)
currently the so-called press is caught up in looking at bernanke’s lack of interest on accepting responsibility for the failure of regulators to regulate. that is in fact a critical problem. fixing that problem is its own issue.
“fixing housing” is yet another problem. with 30% decline in pricing in some critical markets, with bottom only beginning to be in sight, let alone formed, there’s lots of need for right-offs, re-papering, and generic games that will leave fnm common as wall paper.
the difference here is that the mkt will eventuallly sort thru housing. it may take 5-20 years.
at some point, the us treasury will be acquiring fnm stock @ 1. and bleeding it into the mkt…or it will be forgiving the debt. if the mkt requires that forgiveness, things suck.
the treasury bet is that it will profit from the wts (unlike some other tickers, where warrants are used to game the mkt) and will be bleeding some stock into the mkt in slow intervals.
so..if fnm a buy @ 1 3/16??
or is it time to cash out on the recent buys @ 31/32?
those who bought at 31/32 have 40% apr for the year locked in now for that part of their risk capital sectiojned to real estate.

Posted under business

Brent Arends, writing for Market Watch–something he evidently may be doing more of now that the WSJ has closed its Boston office, (Murdoch@work)  asks s reasonably serious question:
:”Should you take advice from someone who writes for a living? ”
well, if it can be said that a medical doctor writes prescriptions for a living, then..yes.
a “doctor” of biology who writes press releases for a living…no.
a stock board poster trying on his own behalf or that of the dogs that pay him to create the illusion that a given ticker is going to double in a month…..definitely not.
ever.
did i mention “no way, no how”??
if not, i am remiss.
one of the first rules for real houses is that there is a chinese wall between the sell side and the buy side.
that is, those with the task of recommending to people what to buy from the house or the street are not to know what advantage there may be to the house in a price run-up, beyond normal common sense.
this is a condition that can never apply to the guy on abcd:amex who is telling you he bought last year, last month, last week, and will be buying more tomorrow, but he also wants you to compete with him in order flow. that statement by itself proves the lie.
prudent speculators, as noted in a previous column, will look for stock boards and see what intelligent information can be found–about the intelligence of the posters.
Arends is discussing the “plight” of o so poor writers, doomed to make $30 an hour thinking about what they want to think about–instead of making $75 an hour, like a plumber who wades around in slop that is not his own.
prudent speculators will be, if not wading, at least visiting the shore to see the investment profiles of those writing about a ticker. if the profile is pleas to others to buy, buy, buy, it may be time to step back.
people who want you to buy are people who want to sell. that’s understood at wmt, vzn, or mcd.
it needs to be understood as part of dd.

Posted under business