Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

human rights for fun and profit.

over the past few weeks, courtesy of a google exec doing a social hack of facebook, zillions of opressed people (not in the usa) are beginning to think that “oppression is bad.” this is unlike wisconsin that thinks that undoing 40 years of labour rights is good for working people.
(thus adding the governor of wisconsin to the short list of people sleazier than mark zuckerberg.)

the safest financial bet on all this random “yearning for freedom” is that, as in wisconsin, freedom will once again be redefined as the golden rule: he who has the gold makes the rules while others warn that if they don’t get what they want they’ll blow a 50 amp fuse.
there may be minor changes to the noun antecedant, just as “czar” was changed to “stalin” without breaking the rule; and ak was changed to ak/neal/garfies when the revolution caused by financial collapse and debt swaps (an historic inevitable) hit biotime,
amex.
the viewing public may be hypnotised by “the politbureau reflects the will of the proletariat” or “mikey is a hero”..but, the facts remain.

thus, the prudent speculator, who has no desire to be cannon fodder for the game, hunts what idiots think of as safe harbours, gets there first, and starts charging rent.
and so, it’s finallly time for gold and silver.
why?  because dictators love them. idiots love them. people who think the mkts are run by lizard people from outerspace  and the aquabuddha and hold senate seats love them. thugs in wisconsin trying to co-erce working people out of the taft-hartley labour act love them.
and actual adults  doing adult things like manufacturing still use small amounts of both of them, and will be forced to compete for access, along with all the afore-mentioned climbing all over each other to place faith and credit into a something boiled out of a rock instead of honour.

as late as early december i was seeing gold as being in a near-term bubble peak, specifically based on landry corp having installed a “gold bar” vending machine in the golden nugget in vegas.

gold and silver have no basis as currencies–nothing actually does—except agreement. the stupidity of the human race causes that fact to be endlessly denied.

the social disruptions ranging across trhe southern med and red sea area are vaguely reminiscent of the after effects of the trojan war occurring right after a major conflict between egypt and babylon and the “global climate changes” cuased by santorini’s tantrum. there is no direct play in small boats capable of reaching the lavinian shores, and thus far tunisia and italy seem united in trapping localised pressure and denying mkt outlets.

when the venn space containing stupidity, fear, hurray for me, and social disruption is drawn, the interference pattern is shiny and metallic.

those best at playing that venn space to their own advantage  over the past century are currently styled jpm and c. when you notice the functional morality of c inre the social contract,  then it is even a more of a positive indicator towards fear/greed/stupid based social activity.
thus:

iau.nyse   clients in 021811 @ 13 19/32.
slv.nyse clients in 021811 @ 31 5/8.

iau.nyse. clients in 022110 @ 13 9/16
slv.nyse clients in 022110 @ 31 3/16

positions fully established.

goals: 20% above non-core usa inflation.

Posted under business

long time readers will recall my continued predictions–starting march 10–of the “double dip” moving intoi place late march 11.
thus far, i;m still fairly comfortable with that assessment.
reasons?
1. the present congress is incapable–thru sheer unwillingness and posturing– of doing anything useful to repair the american economy.
2. the i/b industry is highly confident in its ability to neuter dodd/frank making uncertainty premiums and the next round of leh style implosions more doable, in a climate w/less support.
3. $3 gas and 9% unemployment cannot mix. i have used constant $ retail gasoline prices as a leading indicator since 1981, and w/ some pride note that my screaming at all clients to goto 100% cash as much as possible in mid 2008 when gasoline broke $3 3/8 as my average price. that move preserved enough capital that 2009-10 were outstanding years.
4. the “tech frontier” plays in silicon or carbon-based systems are under real, meaningful price constraints.
quite simply, until taxes are raised to more realisticallly fund medicare/aid, there is no real room in the mktplace for a “blockbuster” drug candidate, yaydyydda.

over the past month, as >core<, not “play” equities moves, i note a few:
–> wynmf.pk (in) 20110107(@) 2  9/16.
amusing play on currency arbs in asia, chinese growth and timing. steve wynn’s machine just announced that as a result of the 57% increase in workable cash flow, dividend of 1-3% are on the way. still trading in that area.
–> cch.nyse (in)  jan11 (@) 28 3/32 for the total cargo.    bet on euro stability for leverage into new mkts, and getting some of the >$2trilllion is sidelines $$ moving… like 2bb euros worth.  if greece doesn;t cave in, large changes in regulatory games will open more ways for pax coca-cola to secure emerging and frontier mkts. coke largely farms this job to “hellenic”..just like alexander did. at this pirce, it’s a hair over 1.1  book, with a div that gets more secure by it’s new euro based finance package. a cash cow in the proprietary solutions mkt. (and therefore the exact opposite of btx:amex….:-) ) at some point, wayyyy out calls will add a bonus factor.
–> infy.nyse (in) 20110211 (@) $66 1/2….i been waiting for this  entry for a month.  as had a sigh of relief when it came back to me before running out of range of my filtres. infy got ahead of itself  specificallly becuase of the number of serious managers who saw it at the same time. emergent i/t pressures ranging from basel 3 to the increasingly desperate desire of crony corporatism to throw away more people all center towards the growth of the indian economy. as india “modernises” infy has overwhelming op to increase its free cash flow “at home.” currently, apx 2/3 of infy free cash is collected in the usa, in such a way that it can doge whatever protectionist bullets the posers in congress pretend to aim. large presence in europe, which can only grow as europe realises that calling something a euro does not integrate an economy.

Posted under business