Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

isco.ob has escaped the “e” doghouse with an amusingly accurate 10q.

some highlights featured below as a guidance towards where the prudent speculator will be gathering shares…

1. isco apparently needs to increase skin care gross by ruffly $3.8mm to hit ebitda….

call it 3x from here.
does anybody in their right mind not think that moving the marketing out from the idiot john mauldin to people who are professionals will almost automatically produce a triple???
isco is making the moves….

so… a “stem play” with ebitda….what’s that worth?

is now a great spot to get in?

“trade into accumulation” is any net point below ruffly 1 13/16…

can isco tells us anything about biotime??? ubetchya.
“On June 18, 2008, the Company entered into an agreement with BioTime, Inc. (“Bio Time”), where Bio Time paid an advance of $250,000 to Lifeline to produce, make, and distribute Joint Products. The $250,000 advance will be paid down with the first $250,000 of net revenues that otherwise would be allocated to Lifeline under the agreement. As of March 31, 2011,>>>>>>>>>>> no revenues have been realized from this agreement. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
that is, btx $58k revs for 2010 from stems is unlikely to increase at any usable rate…

“Warrants issued to BioTime

During June 2008, the Company entered into an agreement with BioTime, Inc. (“Bio Time”), where Bio Time will pay an advance of $250,000 to produce, make, and distribute Joint Products. As part of the agreement, the Company issued warrants for Bio Time to purchase 30,000 shares of the Company’s common stock at $0.25 per share. These warrants expire 4 years from date of grant.”
so…2 years from now, mikey will be putting out mega press releases about “investment” in isco….or else ak/neal garfies will wait til isco breaks lose, then have some trading profits….

“Marketing expenses were $163,223 for the three months ended March 31, 2011, an increase of $29,805, or 22%, compared to $133,418, for the three months ended March 31, 2010. We continue to focus our marketing efforts and spend our marketing dollars on marketing consultants, trade shows and the cost of advertising. We have continued to develop our marketing and sales strategies as well as our marketing infrastructure to support our sales team and our sales goals.” i read that as “screw mauldin’s mailing list, let’s do bizness.”

“During the quarter ended March 31, 2011, the Company has issued 450,000 shares of common stock under the S-1 to Aspire Capital Group, which raised $576,480 and will be used to fund our operational activities.”

no real desperation for $$$, altho i would much, much prefer the strike there to be > 1 7/16…

options grantrted for gaming the stock struck (mostly) above 1 13/16…..accounting for the coxsucker collapse…

“a total of 150,000 shares of common stock issued for consideration of Investor Relations services. “
next pump is being set up…

Posted under business

actc stats

1.54 bb o/s.

rate of change in o/s, ruffly 7% per 1/4…..

requires $12mm more in revenue with no increase in shares or spending to get to $.00001 ebitda.

give them a break and say the dilution rate drops to 4%.

give an irrationally optimistic 2 years to fda approval.

2.1 bb shares actually only changes the required net increase in revenue above g&a, r&d, cog to be $56k.

thus, we’re still left with actc being required to increase gross revs by $12mm, with no increase in spending.

let’s pretend that actc can get something to mkt with a 50% margin. that means a $24mm increase in sales to achieve $0.00001 ebitda. giving actc an astronomically high par of 300 ebitda gives a stock price of ???

1/32.

in any world inhabited by real people, the trip from a handful of patients to an fda phase iii trial completion and acceptance is more than 2 years, and has a price tag–let’s call it $12-30mm.

raising the cash by selling stock is in the neighborhood of another 150mm shares more than “normal growth.” the odds on an fda approved procedure sending more than $10k a patient back to actc are small. the odds on more than 12k procedures smaller yet.

actc is this currently trading 6x higher than it will ever be able to achieve as anything except tickets to chickenpoop bingo.

Posted under business