Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

i’ve been w/yhoo since 1997 or so. in spite of numerous complaints i see about its “liberal” bias, the constant stream of racist garbage on its boards, the constrant stream of birthers, 911 conspiracy nuts, etc, i find yhoo to be fairly balanced. currently it does not think the same of me. ..but that’s for another post.

a video article yhoo shows today is:

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/good-reason-scared-stocks-insider-trading-isn-t-20110404-072310-688.html

the featured guest argues directly (using the language of the trade) that those who run outfits like aig, pru-bache, citibank, are the “finest financial minds” of our time, and cannot be policed or supervised by those who failed to get employment there–that is, the staff of the sec.

he argues that insiders gaming stocks, and hedge fund managers are the one getting the greatest value for everyone out of the equities markets.

that would be an amusing idea if, during the 1980s, the productive environment had not been turned upside down by those who noted that reagan made it possible for insiders to suck all the future prodictivity out of any enterprise, all the community building ops out of any mfg base, by gaming the tax system, and loading debt onto the balance sheet.

the techniques developed then by such as icahn, kravis, al kingsley and others made it possible for those on the winning end of “information asymmetry” to rape the future value from an enterprise, and front load it into the clearing price.

information asymmetry is always a fact. it’s built into biologic systems, and is manifest whenever you notice a “reflex response”–the body part closest to the stimulus responding before the message even reaches the actual brain.

for this reason, prudent speculators always work towards a basis like that of insiders, so that their reflexes will not be cuase cramps in the speculator’s wealth.

markets exist because of information asymmetry. price exists as the dynamic balance point. insiders sell for many reasons, but they only buy for 2: they kniw thingds are about to get much better or they know that the game is gonna collapse without a capital infusion.  that second fact is always ignored by pumpers. >>>always<<<. when it is noted, it is called a “vote of confidence.” it’s not. it’s a reality check.

people on stock boards almost always do their best to induce that spin. the “weak” news is always spun into what’s about to happen. those who point out what >>is<< happening are accused of every crime in the book except one: honesty.

Posted under business

i am increasingly reminded of the fact that people think “science” is a talking animal, that “says” and therefore has an oracular value to point to wealth.
as an 11k year running joke, it used to have great value.
here’s why not: ticker abcd:obb is developing a fail safe 1x vaccination that adds 5 years to life expectancy, and sells for $1 a dose.
let’s get semi real and price humasn life world wide at $4k a year. $20k times 7 bb people:
this is a >>>>$140 trillllllion<<<<< drug.  that’s what “the science” is worth.
in the course of moving from “development stage company” to fda approved product maker abcd.obb tranches out 2bb shares for $600mm, and……
it >>>succeeds<<<<.
the cog thru the factory is $0.60. the distro cost makes delivery a $5 purchase.
this gives a reasonable shot at 4 billion customers over the first 5 years, and an additional 2 billion over the patent life. (becuase outside of the g-7, lotttsa people will die before they have $5 to spend.)
7 billion over 17 years: $412mm in revenues per year.  $164mm a year to g&a of, let’s call it $30mm.
let’s add 400mm shares of options that strike @1,
while the puppy was trading 5/16…
on day of fda approval, abcd goes to 2, and keep rocketing, cause after all….”we all know” and 400mm shares option out to cash.
$133mm in revs to 2.4 billion in shares, w/ share price at 12x sales….. this puppy gets stable @ 21/32.
that’s what “the stock” is worth.
that’s all.
and it’s just that simple.
and the guys who trade into accumulation on the capitualtions and rallys along the line and have a basis of 1/16 on the day the “news” sends this puppy to 6 will make more $$ than the company ever will.
and those playing in the space between will be both agora and cramer, barron’s and ibd, and everybody in between.
and in the meantime, Fortuna? the wealth Goddess??
“She says, Hey babe
Take a walk on the wild side
I Said, Hey baby
Take a walk on the wild side
And the coloured girls go
Doo do doo do doo do do doo..

Posted under business

to complete the triple crown of pure stem stocks, let’s look at international stem cell stocks, isco.ob,
since the isco 10k was filed yesterday. the exact same metric used to give the most generous speculative value is in play on isco, actc and btx.

i note that i have been highly amused at the ever so expected reaction of actc true believers to the simple facts of the actc 10k. new or casual readers are invited to notice that i have never said to anyone “don’t buy actc.” i have said it’s a pure whore stock used to fund a cult. somehow, many people choose to be offended by that rather than deal with it, carry condoms, and get on with it.
prudent speculators use actual due diligence to learn the story behind the story, and keep those facts wrapped around their time with the whores.
de naturis, after a while any whore is worth her worth, julia roberts as pretty woman, or goldman sachs.
anyone wanting a quant for that can look at properly inflation adjusted charts for biotime, actc or isco.
“buy and hold” for biotime would be slightly less than flat. actc is a ski jump into nowhere. that has no effect on the millions of dollars made playing marbles, poker, craps or chicken poop bingo with the stock. in fact, the money made demonstrates that those games are exactly all that is going on.

but..whatever… the isco 10k:
sec issues: none. unlike btx.

isco tranched out enuff to run on for awhile, even as did the other 2.  isco is proud of its patents, just like the other 2. isco spent goodly $$ improving its plant, just as btx did.

book:
cash @ 1x
At December 31, 2010, our cash and cash equivalents totaled $5,782,027.
equipment @ 1x   the 10k shows ~185k. i’m rounding that up to $250k, since the 10k is discussing change, not total.
patents @ 3x
no royalties were received, i/p estate = 0.
i strongly note that i am bothered by that. and it has a a major effect on where i go from here.
specifically, i recall that isco put out a press release in 2010 talking about negotiating i/p leases into europe.
there was some serious “board” discussion about pricing the terms of that deal into the future value of isco. this was at the height of the “replace rabbits” chatter
there was never an 8k.
the 10k says there was never a deal.

in my pov that actuallly makes the isco i/p worth less than 0, and i am gonna price it that way: -$2mm.
sux for isco.  whatever.

sales x 50

:”We have recognized revenue from product sales of $1,121,164″
a necessary note on sales: “cost of sales for the year ended December 31, 2010 were $724,641 or 46% of sales, compared to $789,705 or 70% of sales for the year ended December 31, 2009. Cost of sales included, salaries related to manufacturing, third party manufacturing costs, raw materials, general laboratory supplies and an allocation of overhead.”
being old school, i prefer cost of goods be a separate item with cost of sales. can’t see it. on a positive side, this allows a certain kind of accuracy not visible when such costs are bloating g&a without any information about what generally is being admin’d.

book:
cash and physical ~ $6mm
i/p  = -$2mm x3 = -$6mm.
subtotal? $0.
sales @ 50x:  $56mm

o/s??
As of March 18, 2011, we had 75,689,728, shares of common stock outstanding,

74 cents. call it 3/4. that’s the “worth.”

can anybody trade isco into accumulation to a basis <3/4?

yup.
nibble, nibble, nibble.

is isco a rational choice for accumulation in the stem sector?
actc is much easier to accumulate @ worth.
as a multiple, btx trades farrrr higher than its worth,
making it somewhat easier.

which is least likely to implode from here?
isco.
which is most likely to have that 50x sales fantasy become dilution protection?
isco.
so, out of these 3 whores, which has the most teeth and the least std ?
isco.
my clients in isco have a basis @ ~1.
some have underwater trading positions averaging < 1 5/8.
my call for isco, made march 2010 was 2 1/2 by end of march 11.
it failed.
how come? the i/p is the answer.
can that change in a heartbeat?
u betcha.
could such a change take this puppy thru 3?
no problem. look at btx or actc.

a year from now, any rationality in these 3 stories will need tighter testing.
the one most likely to survive the stress testing?
isco.
how come? any change in its i/p status, combined with present rate of progress on skin care will expand the “worth” to close to mkt clearing price, and the whore chasers will thence explode the price.

Posted under business

the so-called pure plays in stem cells, “regenerative medicine” are biotime, on amex, and actc, on ob.

having taken a close look at btx lasat week, it seems only fair to look at actc. especiallly when actc is such a total rat.

i am going to use the same ridiculously optimistic metricks i used for btx: 1x cash and hard assets, plus 3x the rational book value of intellectual property, plus 50 times sales.

by way of comparison, gern trades for ~3x cash, or 170x sales. apple…hardly a trailing edge dinosaur trades at <3x sales, trades at 15x ebitda.

so to look at a “story stock”–where the question is what are the odds of there ever being ebitda–requires utterly irrational valuations at the present, as a way of speculating about the future.

here’s the highlight reel from the actc 10k:

intellectual property

:”Due to our current stage of development, our existing patent portfolio is not currently supporting a marketed product, so we will not suffer from any reduction in product revenue from patent expiration. Any actual products that we develop are expected to be supported by intellectual property covered by current patent applications that, if granted, would not expire for 20 years from the date first filed.”
plain english: not being amortised becuase there is nothing to amortised.
relationship with university of massachusets:
“We are currently behind on our payments of all UMass license fees, since 2008, and as such we are in breach of the license agreement. ”
:”We also agreed to make milestone payments to UMass of up to $1,630,000 upon the achievement of various development and commercialization milestones. Finally, we have agreed to pay UMass 18% of all sublicense income.”

incoming royaltys?
:”Exeter is required to pay an annual maintenance fee for the license, equal to $100,000 in 2005, increasing annually by $50,000 up to $500,000. Exeter’s obligation to pay the annual maintenance fee was suspended until certain intellectual property that is the subject of litigation, namely the matter styled University of Massachusetts v. James M. Robl and Phillipe Collas , Massachusetts Superior Court, Suffolk County, Docket No. 04-0445-BLS, was settled in dispute. Negotiations  are continuing ”

plain english? value 0.
:”We expect that Lifeline Exclusive License Agreement Number 1, as amended, will be further amended as a result of the Start Settlement and the settlement of University of Massachusetts and Advanced Cell Technology, Inc. v. Roslin Institute (Edinburgh), Geron Corporation and Exeter Life Sciences, Inc. , U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (Case No. 1:05-cv-00706 RMU), and University of Massachusetts and Advanced Cell Technology, Inc. v. Roslin Institute (Edinburgh), Geron Corporation and Exeter Life Sciences, Inc. , U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (Case No. 1:05-cv-00353 RMU).”
plain english? value 0..minus legal costs.
:”. Lifeline is required to pay us royalties equal to 6% of net sales of products and services covered by the license, and a minimum royalty fee of $25,000 in the first year, plus, commencing 12 months after the effective date of the agreement, additional minimum royalty fees in the amount of $7,500 at 12 months, $7,500 at 24 months, $6,875 at 36 months, and $15,000 annually thereafter. Lifeline also paid a license fee in the amount of $225,000 in cash on June 1, 2007.

:”We expect that Lifeline Exclusive License Agreement Number 3, as amended, will be further amended or terminated, as a result of the dissolution of Infigen and the acquisition by us of certain of the Infigen patent rights.”
plain  english? $750k worth of i/p…to be taken to bottom line @ 3x. as generous speculative value.

:”Start Licensing License - On August 30, 2006, we entered into a Settlement and License Agreement with UMass and Start Licensing, Inc. (indefinite license period). See description of this agreement above. Pursuant to this agreement, we granted Start Licensing a worldwide, exclusive, fully paid-up and royalty-free license, with the right to grant sublicenses, to certain patent rights for use in connection with all uses and applications in non-human animals. The agreement was reached in connection with the settlement of the patent interference actions. The terms of the agreement also includes an initial payment to us, which has been made, and certain milestone payments. In addition, under the agreement, Start, Geron Corporation and Roslin Institute (”Roslin”) each agree not to sue us under certain patent applications owned by Roslin.”
plain english? value 0. but, for the sake of absolute generosity based on future speculations by “start”..$100 k…3x to bottom line.

:”Terumo Agreement - Diacrin, Inc. and Terumo Corporation entered into a development and license agreement on September 4, 2002 (indefinite license period)”….”The milestone consisted of a Phase I clinical trial for the Myoblast Program in Japan and was extended for two years. This agreement is no longer in effect as of December 31, 2010. ”
value? 0.
:”Transition Holdings, Inc. - On December 18, 2008, we entered into a license agreement with an Ireland-based investor, Transition Holdings Inc. (“Transition”), for certain of our non-core technology (indefinite license period). This license was terminated effective February 9, 2011. ”
:”Stem Cell & Regenerative Medicine International, Inc. - On December 1, 2008, the Company and CHA Bio & Diostech Co., Ltd. (“CHA”), a leading Korean-based biotechnology company focused on the development of stem cell technologies, formed an international joint venture. The new company, Stem Cell & Regenerative Medicine International, Inc. (“SCRMI”), will develop human blood cells and other clinical therapies based on our Hemangioblast Program, one of our core technologies. SCRMI has agreed to pay the Company fee of $500,000 for an exclusive, worldwide, license to the Hemangioblast Program (indefinite license period). ”
plain english? discounted cash flow of $500k over 20years.
most generous analysis? $100k to bottom line.
:”CHA – On May 21, 2009, we have entered into a licensing agreement (indefinite license period) ”
most generous pov? $300k a year towards gross sales, 50x.

:”In 2008, we entered into a license agreement (indefinite license period) whereby we licensed to Embryome Sciences certain cell processing technologies, including the technology licensed from Kirin Beer.We received an up-front payment of $470,000 and will receive royalties from future sales of product that utilizes the technologies from the licenses. ”
so..does actc retain the strong “brain trust” factor that developed all this i/p?
:”In 2008, we entered into a new partnership (CHA) and as a result, we are subject to 3rd party interests (see RISKS RELATED TO THIRD PARTY RELIANCE) and control issues, not the least of which relates to certain of our employees no longer being exclusively managed by us. We therefore could be at risk for losing key employees. Additionally substantial operating and working capital will be required and there is no assurance that CHA Biotech Co. limited, partner in our joint venture, will be able to fund their requirements. ”

doe actc expect any changes?
to cover its liability to the sec, actc made sure it put this sentence into bold faced italics:
:”Over the last two years we have narrowed our potential product pool to focusing on our Retinal Program as well as the applications of our I.P.S. technology, which will limit our revenue sources. ”
fact: the retinal program was authorised by the fda under “orphan” status–which includes the fda’s accountants calculating the effort as being a money losing proposition.

so, what does actc actually think about the stability of its intellectual property?
:”Risks Related to Intellectual Property

Our business is highly dependent upon maintaining licenses with respect to key technology.

Several of the key patents we utilize are licensed to us by third parties. These licenses are subject to termination under certain circumstances (including, for example, our>>> failure to make minimum royalty payments or to timely achieve development and commercialization benchmarks<<<<). The loss of any of such licenses, or the conversion of such licenses to non-exclusive licenses, could harm our operations and/or enhance the prospects of our competitors.

Certain of these licenses also contain restrictions, such as limitations on our ability to grant sublicenses that could materially interfere with our ability to generate revenue through the licensing or sale to third parties of important and valuable technologies that we have, for strategic reasons, elected not to pursue directly. The possibility exists that in the future we will require further licenses to complete and/or commercialize our proposed products. We cannot assure you that we will be able to acquire any such licenses on a commercially viable basis. ”
s actc admits, it’s already falling behond, and states it has no plans for catching up.

what does actc actually have as the basis of its intellectual property estate??
:”Certain parts of our know-how and technology are not patentable. To protect our proprietary position in such know-how and technology, we intend to require all employees, consultants, advisors and collaborators to enter into confidentiality and invention ownership agreements with us. We cannot assure you, however, that these agreements will provide meaningful protection for our trade secrets, ”
plain english? value 0.
as actc itself says:
:”. Our success will depend, to a substantial degree, on our ability to obtain and enforce patent protection for our products, preserve any trade secrets and operate without infringing the proprietary rights of others. We cannot assure you that”
:”We are not in full compliance with some of our license agreements.

We are not in full compliance with some of our licenses (see Our Intellectual Property in the DESCRIPTION OF BUSINESS section of this prospectus) and due to limited financial resources we cannot guarantee that we will regain full compliance status. If we are unable to be in compliance with our license agreements, our business may be harmed.”

the california welfare checks, the cirm grants:
“For-profit entities may be prohibited from benefiting from grant funding .

There has been much publicity about grant resources for stem cell research, including Proposition 71 in California.  While the California Institute CIRM has provided grant funds to some for-profit entities, there is no guarantee that it will continue to do so, particularly given the state’s current budgetary conditions.”

yeah. crony capitalism may be reduced to the level of the good ole boys alma mater’s getting welfare…but not their landlords, suits, and cult members.
endless dilution???
:”As of December 31, 2010, on an aggregated basis our debt and preferred stock financings may result in being converted into 6,400,425 shares of our common stock, and warrants and options that may be converted into approximately 183,307,361 shares of our common stock. ”

how does this dawg plan on keeping the doors open??

:”We plan to fund our operations for the next twelve months primarily from the following financings:As of December 31, 2010, $1,581,834 is available to us upon the sale of our Series A-1 preferred stock for a maximum placement commitment of $5 million.
·

As of December 31, 2010, $21 million is available to us upon the sale of our Series C preferred stock for a maximum placement commitment of $25 million. We continue to repay our debt financings in shares of common stock, enabling us to use our cash resources to fund our operations.

so… with all the terrain discussed, now there can be motion towards valuation.

revenues? i’m calling it all sales @ 50x.
$725,044
cash @ 1x.
$400k  for property and future royalty..@ a wildly generous 3x    $1.2 mm

subtotal?  $2mm.

i/p listed above@3x??? $2.5mm.
i/p listed above as towards future sales @ 50x???
$1.5mm.
subtotal? $4mm

grand total?? $6,000,000. ….$6mm.
that’s all that is here.
what is the o/s??
1,218,190,921

price per share??
$0.005

that’s what actc is “worth.” no more. nada.
remove the corspicle cultists, the mikey cultists,
the manipulation, and the play value of actc sotck as a ticket for chickenpoop bingo, and that is what is there. tops.
can a chickenpoop bingo player win on trading actc.ob??
only so long as every rounds trip has a basis < $0.005 and adds whatever nut is required for risk premium.
a look at the actc.ob yhoo boards gives clear evidence over the years that this is exactly what the “actc” “longs” are doing….as the the daily tape.
the vol speaks for itself.

towards gaap?
as laffable as that is, it’s a factor.
:”  As of December 31, 2010, we have an accumulated deficit of $180,949,523 and a stockholders’ deficit of $23,653,090. ”

the f/a value of this whore will remain @ 0 forever.

it  is only the “wild speculation” value that reaches $0.005

everything above that is chicken poop bingo.

stem cell stock "investment" in actc.ob

Posted under business

sec filings:
in the 10k biotime asserts its reasoning in methodology is “per sec guidelines”.
however, on aug3, 2010, biotime was forced to acknowledge in writing that this is an unwarranted assumption: “the company is responsible for the adequacy and accuracy of the disclosure in the filing;
staff comments or changes to disclosure in response to staff comments do not foreclose the Commission from taking any action with respect to the filing; the company may not assert staff comments as a defense in any proceeding initiated by the Commission or any person under the federal securities laws of the United States.”

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876343/000087634311000014/filename1.htm

does biotime care?
from today’s 10k:
:”Critical Accounting Policies

Revenue recognition - We comply with SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin guidance on revenue recognition.”

my conclusion? the same sec that couldn’t be bothered to checck bernie madoff’s dtc records has reasons to look at how biotime keeps its books.

heading towards revenue..not achieving it:
:”In 2011, ReCyte Therapeutics intends to begin to build a near-term revenue business by offering a service to reverse the developmental aging of human cells, and to generate blood and vascular progenitors, for cell banking purposes.”

in other words, “recyte” which has been priced into the winner’s column for 2 years, a substantial part of the trip from 2 to 4+ and amex listing, has no actual business in place after 2 years.
instead, having pulled in enough $millions from stockholders, it “intends” to “begin” something or other.
not begin it.
biotime asia:
very positive information for btx longs.
:”NMMI may increase its percentage ownership interest in BioTime Asia to up to 39% if”….
6 years out there is a $100mm gross in asia, or an ind in 2 years.
so…6 years from now (assuming 30% towards ebitda) biotime asia might be sending $30mm a year
back to alameda, for maybe 40 cents a share to the top line.
that would price biotime ~$6 —6 years from now.
an excellent reason to accumulate <2 net now.

now:
since however, btx is trading now at some proce or another, 2010’s actual numbers are the ones that count:
:”During 2010 … we spent $7,892,024,” on r&d.
:”Our net losses for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010, … $10,103,872.
:”Future clinical trials of new therapeutic products will be very expensive and will take years to complete. ”
of course btx may find partners, tho it has a serious history of not being able to keep them.
but, very directly, to the extend there is partnership, there is reduced revenue upon success.
what is left to measure is btx’s ability to succeed on its own.
in what environment?
:”
Competing products are being manufactured and marketed by established pharmaceutical companies
“is a risk that our competitors may succeed at developing safer or more effective products that could render our products and technologies obsolete or noncompetitive.”
yup. indeed.
while mikey “intends to begin”, others are >>doing <<, using far better presuppositions and ontologival models, and are as a result in the marketplace.
:”
so???
:”It is likely that additional sales of equity or debt securities will be required to meet our short-term capital needs, unless we receive substantial revenues from the sale of our new products “…which, as noted, will not be happening anytime near today.

so… how long…how long, til that old train be gone??
:”At December 31, 2010, we had $33,324,924 of cash and cash equivalents on hand. ”

so, what is biotime “worth”"??

using the model i built a couple of weeks ago,
1x tangible book, plus
3x intangible >plus<
8x hex sales, >>>plus<<
50x stem sales
(and i cheerfully note that ben graham is rolling in his grave, but this is after all, a “story stock”)

$35mm
$<1mm
$5mm
—–
$41 mm
shares??? 40mm.

$1 a share.

so: a price range… $1-2. that’s all there is.

those who like this puppy, who buy the story for whatever corpsicle, stem cell, transhumanist reasons,
whatever personal health problems that might lead them to want biotime to succeed, that’s what’s there.

the rest is whore stock gaming, betting on ball games for the sake of the bet, blue devils vs. whatever.
there’s $$$ to be accumulated playing that game.
but that is >>not<< prudent speculation.
this is perhaps made utterly clear by looking at hextend, which works. hextend is a great product.

however, btx stock traded in the amex is not hextend. what does hextend do to prevent trauma in a portfolio?
hextend:
:”This change was made due to the fact that too much of the product was being distributed to ground troops for inclusion in field packs and was going unused beyond the expiration date, so a different pattern of distribution was deemed advisable. ”
since the >>primary<< benefit of hextend, the unique hypercalcemic electrolytes’ effect of trauma cascade is being deemed to be not cost efficient,
hextend is in trouble.
how come? assuming a cost per unit of <$18, and a seriously optimistic 6/1 waste ratio, the military is saying it sees < $126 worth of improved survivability and los in the product.
are there other indicators??
:”A Phase III clinical trial using Hextend in surgery, funded by Maruishi, was conducted in Japan, but work on the trial has not been completed. Due to the withdrawal of Maruishi “…
if the trials were at all favourable would maruishi have quit???
:”Summit will need to find a replacement sublicensee or other source of funding”
and >>>why<<< isn’t biotime paying for it???
the olny business based rational reason is that betting on a favourable outcome would generate less revenue than would be spent.
given this  week in tokyo, if hextend worked in surgery, would the japanese be desperate for it?
does the damage tally from japan show that the japanese are always willing to spend to ensure a better outcome in a crisis? clearly yes. the damage from the events is far less than it would have been in the usa, specificallly becuase of preventative spending over 60 years.

hextend revenues total world wide for 2010?
$1.2mm.. with the patent life on the serious downside.

biotime stock prospects?? about like hextend’s.

Posted under business

the prudent speculator values seeing and prudence equally. the last thing he looks to see is whether “everybody’s getting in, act now.”
those ops may happen, as whore stocks, which can yield excellent results–or not–w/ play $.
given a choice between self-inducing good feelings with $1k on roulette at main street station, or $1k on a “miracle cure vaccine” at the .obb, the prudent speculator will split the bet.
the prudent speculator >never< chases a stock.
will many ops pass on by as a result? ubetchya.

so, to this update, i start by noting that i have been waiting since last sept to advise clients that it was time to go in like it matters. a massively large name–brk–was already there. it woulda been easy to say it’s good enuff for buffet, so it’s good enuff for my clients. but oddly enuff, none of my clients has a $38bb cash pad to help with the patience factor–even tho i advise being “more in cash” than brk, in order to avoid the real opportunity cost–reserves of firepower.
the play? byddy.pk.
buffet just announced he’s still comfortable. my dd suggests that byd is in fact about 3/4 year further along on the biz plan than it was a  1/2 year ago.
and my filtres/numbers line up @ this range.
who/what/why??
much easier to just give a link:

betting on green

2 ways to buy this puppy:
byddf is the “actual share adr”.
unless you think u are smarter than buffet, no reason to bother.
byddy is a citibank (sigh) adr. easily moveable, like any listed stock.
up/downside? the stronger renminbi will, in my pov, become additional up. the generic craziness of the chinese stock mkts induces volatiity, and i see a chinese “housing bubble” about 18mos out.

so…where..again?

clients in byddy.pk 20110228 @ 8 1/16.
goals and time frame? shoot for beating buffet, in the same time frame.
this will involve additional buying 2nd position, 3rd defensive, and most likely random chunks of trading positions to keep the net basis dropping, and 20% returns from recycling the dd.

o…hehe, additional fd: clients in byd (the main street station reference) as well.

Posted under business, markets

human rights for fun and profit.

over the past few weeks, courtesy of a google exec doing a social hack of facebook, zillions of opressed people (not in the usa) are beginning to think that “oppression is bad.” this is unlike wisconsin that thinks that undoing 40 years of labour rights is good for working people.
(thus adding the governor of wisconsin to the short list of people sleazier than mark zuckerberg.)

the safest financial bet on all this random “yearning for freedom” is that, as in wisconsin, freedom will once again be redefined as the golden rule: he who has the gold makes the rules while others warn that if they don’t get what they want they’ll blow a 50 amp fuse.
there may be minor changes to the noun antecedant, just as “czar” was changed to “stalin” without breaking the rule; and ak was changed to ak/neal/garfies when the revolution caused by financial collapse and debt swaps (an historic inevitable) hit biotime,
amex.
the viewing public may be hypnotised by “the politbureau reflects the will of the proletariat” or “mikey is a hero”..but, the facts remain.

thus, the prudent speculator, who has no desire to be cannon fodder for the game, hunts what idiots think of as safe harbours, gets there first, and starts charging rent.
and so, it’s finallly time for gold and silver.
why?  because dictators love them. idiots love them. people who think the mkts are run by lizard people from outerspace  and the aquabuddha and hold senate seats love them. thugs in wisconsin trying to co-erce working people out of the taft-hartley labour act love them.
and actual adults  doing adult things like manufacturing still use small amounts of both of them, and will be forced to compete for access, along with all the afore-mentioned climbing all over each other to place faith and credit into a something boiled out of a rock instead of honour.

as late as early december i was seeing gold as being in a near-term bubble peak, specifically based on landry corp having installed a “gold bar” vending machine in the golden nugget in vegas.

gold and silver have no basis as currencies–nothing actually does—except agreement. the stupidity of the human race causes that fact to be endlessly denied.

the social disruptions ranging across trhe southern med and red sea area are vaguely reminiscent of the after effects of the trojan war occurring right after a major conflict between egypt and babylon and the “global climate changes” cuased by santorini’s tantrum. there is no direct play in small boats capable of reaching the lavinian shores, and thus far tunisia and italy seem united in trapping localised pressure and denying mkt outlets.

when the venn space containing stupidity, fear, hurray for me, and social disruption is drawn, the interference pattern is shiny and metallic.

those best at playing that venn space to their own advantage  over the past century are currently styled jpm and c. when you notice the functional morality of c inre the social contract,  then it is even a more of a positive indicator towards fear/greed/stupid based social activity.
thus:

iau.nyse   clients in 021811 @ 13 19/32.
slv.nyse clients in 021811 @ 31 5/8.

iau.nyse. clients in 022110 @ 13 9/16
slv.nyse clients in 022110 @ 31 3/16

positions fully established.

goals: 20% above non-core usa inflation.

Posted under business

long time readers will recall my continued predictions–starting march 10–of the “double dip” moving intoi place late march 11.
thus far, i;m still fairly comfortable with that assessment.
reasons?
1. the present congress is incapable–thru sheer unwillingness and posturing– of doing anything useful to repair the american economy.
2. the i/b industry is highly confident in its ability to neuter dodd/frank making uncertainty premiums and the next round of leh style implosions more doable, in a climate w/less support.
3. $3 gas and 9% unemployment cannot mix. i have used constant $ retail gasoline prices as a leading indicator since 1981, and w/ some pride note that my screaming at all clients to goto 100% cash as much as possible in mid 2008 when gasoline broke $3 3/8 as my average price. that move preserved enough capital that 2009-10 were outstanding years.
4. the “tech frontier” plays in silicon or carbon-based systems are under real, meaningful price constraints.
quite simply, until taxes are raised to more realisticallly fund medicare/aid, there is no real room in the mktplace for a “blockbuster” drug candidate, yaydyydda.

over the past month, as >core<, not “play” equities moves, i note a few:
–> wynmf.pk (in) 20110107(@) 2  9/16.
amusing play on currency arbs in asia, chinese growth and timing. steve wynn’s machine just announced that as a result of the 57% increase in workable cash flow, dividend of 1-3% are on the way. still trading in that area.
–> cch.nyse (in)  jan11 (@) 28 3/32 for the total cargo.    bet on euro stability for leverage into new mkts, and getting some of the >$2trilllion is sidelines $$ moving… like 2bb euros worth.  if greece doesn;t cave in, large changes in regulatory games will open more ways for pax coca-cola to secure emerging and frontier mkts. coke largely farms this job to “hellenic”..just like alexander did. at this pirce, it’s a hair over 1.1  book, with a div that gets more secure by it’s new euro based finance package. a cash cow in the proprietary solutions mkt. (and therefore the exact opposite of btx:amex….:-) ) at some point, wayyyy out calls will add a bonus factor.
–> infy.nyse (in) 20110211 (@) $66 1/2….i been waiting for this  entry for a month.  as had a sigh of relief when it came back to me before running out of range of my filtres. infy got ahead of itself  specificallly becuase of the number of serious managers who saw it at the same time. emergent i/t pressures ranging from basel 3 to the increasingly desperate desire of crony corporatism to throw away more people all center towards the growth of the indian economy. as india “modernises” infy has overwhelming op to increase its free cash flow “at home.” currently, apx 2/3 of infy free cash is collected in the usa, in such a way that it can doge whatever protectionist bullets the posers in congress pretend to aim. large presence in europe, which can only grow as europe realises that calling something a euro does not integrate an economy.

Posted under business

just last evening somebody with decent brains and a truly  dark and evil nom de net asked me

:”what in Gods green earth do you see in cbai? ”

first off… readers are invited to re-read
http://baltbear-on-finance.com/uncategorized/dancing-with-w-stocks

cbai… ok… let’s suppose that
1. random “stemcell”  plays from actc to btix, and on thru the alphabet are actually just fronts for the cults of singularity/corpsicle/trasnhuman…>>>always<<< a safe bet unless there is clear evidence to the contrary–
and therefore will always trade a shot at ebitda for a “new line of investigation.”
2.that congress under the current whack jobs will not do anything about repealing whatever that paragraph is that courts finally noticed makes everything but adult stem cell research unlawful for fed welfare bux, and that all states but ca will be pounding on congress door to “no earmark” them a place on the nipple;
a. let us note that the chick from colorado “spearheading” the repeal took like 7 phreaking years to get the idea thru congress that letting people actually know about e-coli outbreaks in food >before< people started dying was a bright idea;
b. let us spose that people with an opinion on embryos and such whio can get a repub style congressman on the phone are more prevalent than lettuce farmers, who were able to stall the e-coli thingy…
3. that cirm is actually just a hedge for the ca commercial real estate mkt…as already noted…and that jerry brown cannot squeeze blood out of turnips as well as the gubernator had been doing.
4. that paul was correct in saying—but never. ever..nevver.. doing anything about–that, other than sex, autologuous anythings are better than ones from others.
5.  that actual information theory (not cult fantasies) gets more traction in medicine, a mere..like 400 years after the royal academy first rejected the “germ theory.”
6. ur open to owning more “stems” but also would like more than one egg in the basket, and u got lottsa isco.ob.
7. u wanna go bar hopping with a whore stock.
8. if $2k goes down the sewer, it’s no different than a bad night at the boat, other than no free drinks.
9. u get to feel all noble and such… like the cultists do… about “helping humanity.” and have a valid excuse for a change on why the lady has to pass on those new ferragamos..and get bragging rights at the parish instead.
10.. play the total zillion/1 longshot and say that the cash coming back into speculation has learned enuff to think about a chance at gaap instead of “billion dollar mkt”… or “growing eyeballs.”

what’s not to like about cbai.ob???

given 1-5 above…can cbai.ob hit 1/8 on a frenzy??
so.. u buy it for 1/100 of 7/16…
if it dips randomly,u buy some more,  off load…trade into accumulation until ur basis is 0ish… not that long a trip…:-)

laws of a baltbear: how do u make $$ on a stock trading below a dime?? u buys lotttttsa it.

Posted under business

since the gameboys and posers on many boards have been shown as just that,
i thought it might be amusing to note some client positions “for the record.”

as noted elsewhere,
byd: in ~9 1/2 by 122010, with profits from offloading c. also as noted when announced, “ethics” is a primary motivator there: byd’s are better than c’s, even as bernard siegel’s were.
further on byd: clients wrote
BYD Jun 2011 13.000 call.. amusing chance to get the 20% apr + the gains.
recent room rates in vegas, combined w/my recent due diligence/ vacation/ biz trip that included a thoro sampling of main street station tell me that 13 is a reasonable do…but maybe not by june.
on anything involving vegas right now, the real gaming story is in debt allocation, junk trading, and bailing out. there’s plenty of restructuring to be done which will depress gaming “basket” buying that could otherwise give some push to byd.
clients w/ “whore stock” allocation into cbai.ob @ $0.0045 average.
clients who were aimed at bp @ 32, and who have been playing calls are all poised to exit by being called out on 47.5s.
as a hedge on my expectations for the double dip, clients started the new year accumulating arr.amex @ ~ 7 13/16….reading the filings will serve the prudent speculator, and i ain’t bothering to address the impotent punk posers much anymore.

on a compleatly unrelated note, as a matter of ethics and honour, if any readers have offspring
that fall into that “special needs” category, i’d avise taking a seriousllly serrious look at ur port&planning, any advisors u have, etc. and figure the odds are 3/2 they are screwing over the goals of ur planning.
as dodd/franks gets fought against by the entrenched gamers who’ve been living off u their entire life, this little detail may emerge from the smoke.
and do recall “laws of a baltbear: (vikinged from jfk) where there’s smoke there’s a smoke machine.”

Posted under business