let’s talk about biotime, as a classic story of how to read a tape, a chart, hear a story, and watch the trader get screwed.
recently th stock has been "very active". rumours started a few month ago about obama liking stem cells, and oddly enough biotime was suddently in th stem cell business.
volume kept slowly increasing, and the ticker moved up to a 4 bagger for some sharp traders. i commented on this elsewhere.
but in a "story stock" sooner or reality tere needs be a reality.
and here it is:" The maturity date for the amended line of credit has been extended from November 15, 2008 to April 15, 2009. As of November 17, 2008, certain lenders elected to convert $1,050,000 in principal and $62,013 of accrued interest on their loans to 1,112,013 BioTime common shares."
:"$16,956 in investor relations expenses"
biotime continues its long term trend of selling stock to meet "expenses" and continues to do nohing. ho many years between phase ii trials for hextend, and the end of phase ii for pentalyte? 10 and counting…10 years to demonstrate one stasticially verifiable outcome. in the meantim, hextend works. hextend works, no matter hat shortsellers wanted to say about it.
what doesn’t work is the revenue model. becuase of the, lol, "management team."
so… for a couple of months the pump and dump specialist were paid a lot of stock and cash to create some action for btim.
how many share were shorted into the run? at what prices?
the average "investor" or trader will never know. never.
becuase nasd allows insamely late reporting on short interest.
and if te short was covered inside a 30 day reporting period, to the guy at te end of the chain, it never happned.
and then, one fine day, and i specifically asked people "where are these shares coming from" a million shares "changed hands" that is, went from treasury to street, and the exchange registered the traansaction.
a level ii scren would probably have shown bloks of 50k hitting th tape.
and some people would have nibbled in to that stream, and bought more.
the stock ended down that day. but the volume average will be distroted for 3 months, and then come crashing down. in the meantime, brokers and hypesters will tell cleints, yes it was down, but on far below average volume…don;t worry, be happy.
in th meantime..there’s <$60 cash on hand, and another loc for another million bux. incoming cash is eaten by debt service:
"Royalty revenues recognized for that three-month period were $341,391…
For the nine months ended September 30, 2008, we incurred a total of $366,795 of net interest expense," ….
so what does btim offer to anyone wanting to roll it up or be rolled bu it?
i’m still seeing 5/8 coming as a price. i had said within 60 days of the new dc admin. it might be a while later, becuase of the effectiveness of the pump.
but based on anyt f/a, cmbined with th story, 3/16 is actually high for the actual value by p/e, (negative) p/s call it 12 for generosity,8 for a norm), or eps (stated unknown becuase of military sales) or, lol… 2x book.
Posted under markets
This post was written by admin on November 30, 2008
