Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

i rceived an email a couple ago asking, basedon a conversation elsewhere, what i meant by ” shake and bake” –was i referencing talladega nights?

nope. the termpredates that movie by a decade.
let’s explain:
so, mm’s see a surge tomorrow on ticker abcd:nasd.nm. how? because sallimay, the daughter of the ceo told her sorority sister, the daughter of the hedge fund manager, that she was going to shopping for a new beemer on saturday.
(don;t think that happens? i once had an associate who was chief of security for a rather expensive private college, who did his most successul trades based on whether visiting parents, who were all ceo/cfo/coo/etc types were smiling or somber whe they greeted their daughters.)
the mm can see, on his screen that there are a total of 100k shares hanging in the float wth limit sells, and stop loss orders.
let’s say abcd is trading at 15, and there are stops in all the way down to 10. a stop loss at 13 5/8 will execute at 8, if that’s the clear (the “market”), and there’s a buyer. so.. he offers to buy 80k @ 8, and sell 1k at 12, 1k at 11, 1k @ 10, 1k @ 8 1/16. somebody elsewhere (like me) has a limit buy, 1k @ 8 1/8.
as soon as the “enter” button gets hit, the domios fall, and all 100k of stop losses kick in, looking for a buyer. why? becuase that 1k @ 8 1/15 sell hit my buy 1k @ 8 1/8.
the mm is now short 1k, but, if there are not limit buys in for 99k more between 8 1/8 and 13 5/8, all those stop losses are going to pour into the mm’s account.
and 2 minures later the whole thing is over.
and that’s shake and bake.
think things like that never happen? tat the markets are not that corrupt? that hedger fnd managers are your freinds? that ur broker is looking out for you? that that hypster on a stock board cares about the company? that the regulators will prevent this?
ok. keep beleiving it. or else note:

then read the chage in “analysts” lol…”sentiment” today.

Posted under business

More than once in this little corner of th world, i will be making reference to a stock that has been on the :obb, nasd:sc, nasd:nm, amex, and back to nasd:obb–the penny stock boards…sometimes called "pinks" ahthough pink sheets refers to a different marketing system now, thankfully, lost to history..i hope.

   As an example of what the prudent speculator should examine while doing the dd (due diligence) to manufacture a chart, warrnats serve as an example of fundamental analysis that will need be considered.

  A warrant is the right to buy from the treasury (the treasury of the corp "warrants" or promises that the total authorised includes an allowance for future stick not issued) a warrant for some large discount, that becomes a coupon to rtade for a share of stock under certain conditions. 

Thus, corp yuck:nasd:obb  whose common traddes at 7/8, can sell warrants @ let’s say 3/16, which are tradable 1:1 for a share of common >>>if<<< the average trading price of yuck is at or above  1 1/2 for 30 days before 122112….december 21, 2012…the winter solstice and end of the world.

 to make the warrants attractive, an mm will keep the ticker as close to that level as he ca get it. the warrants get sold, te treasury takes the money, and the comoany then watches the mm sell off, shorting into the raly he built, collecting his fees for moving the warrant, whle the corp screams about evl manipulators..while waknig away with free cash.

here’s a chart:

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BTIM.OB&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

here’s another…lol..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BTIMW.OB&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

whoops…

 so…what is the soruce of this week long rally?

fundamentals?

 a news release?

or…..could it be…. mm games?

or do they all work together?

the prudent speculator wants to know.

before he hits the trigger. he gets to know by doing is dd well in advance, and never being done with it. only then do the charts become tea leaves…

Posted under business

recently i have seen a lot of ads for software that claims to spot
upcoming two-baggers for you, out of a zillion or so "penny stocks"
"penny stocks" is an old term meaning very little.
another term is nasd:obb whch means the ticker meets some very small prereqs.
 the usual only pre-re is that some mm will make the "market".
becuase once upon a time, not all that long ago, there were pink sheets,
there were blue sheets for pork, red sheets for beef,
pink sheets for thinly trded stocks, such stocks were called "pinks."
 this program
http://makemoneyathomeadnetwork.com/link/24/
masked here to protect the guilty,
runs thousands of such stocks and does candlestick analysis on them.
candlestick analysis is the original t/a, invented in japan 200 years ago.
 this program looks for breakouts.
it uses a central rlational database and sees what people choose to look at.
 because of this, the owners are able to see who likes what.
 this knowledge gves an edge that influences the chart.
 i tested the software, and it had better than a random wall average.
just about every ticker it liked was a dog, whore stock, being run.
 run by omebody who neded the momo to make a deal.
 those who are fast enough on the trigger might be able to use it.
those who are not dead fast on the trigger may get run over by it.
   many people offer to sell it to you.
that suggests to me the money is in the sale not the product.
  that would be dd in action.
so what dd  do u do?
 peter lynch once said, if you don’t uderstand it-don’t own it.
is that true for your port?
 

Posted under business