Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

somebody asked me, on a random stock board
what books ti read to get better at reading an sec filing, and doing actual fundamnetal analysis.
using a case in point, i replied,

sec.gov.
reading filings.
on f/a..grahame&dodd…… sigh.
which will tell u to not get near btim, et al..so does not apply.
as i have said before, this is a “story stock”..and the dd is thence all about the story.

u are telling one to urself about future earnings. i am looking for a basis for such that can be measured (in f/a terms) plus some insane multiple to allow for hype.
(peter lynch tells the story of in the late 80’s going to japan over and over, looking to invest there..and always seeing evvvvverything overpriced.. and still going up… but then, one fine day, or 1/4…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&…
whatever u can find by lynch will be eminently readable. and whatever u can find by either adam smith, or that matter, das kapital (u probly want the translation…:-) ).
within those contexts:
1: why does btim keep frontloading filings? (giving data for periods after the reporting period).
2. why does btim not state, transparently, terms of financing?
3. why does btim keeeeep using warrants?
4. why is the patent estate not identified in filings?
5. how many units of cells must be sold to meet g&a, and cog? (i’m ignoring r&d)
what is the present mkt for such?
what is a reaonable growth rate in that mkt? 40% y/over/y? 60%
how come?
who are the cmpetitors?
can they indercut the price?
what >unique< advantage does btim have?
what s mangemtn’s track record at creating value for shareholders?
what is the track record of failures??
(failure is not a problem by itself…annny “story” stock will have plenty.
what do the >filings< ..not the press, say about that?
this entry is not about btim:ob.
it is about how to think about what you hear.
right now, i am sitting sipping some “expensive” coffee–that is, expensive in comparison to the rancid garbage from a folger’s can. this stuff retails for $27 a pound. how does it do that? by having desirable qualities that other coffees do not. it has a niche, which has grown, and can be supplied consistently.
any stock you are told about, no matter what the sector, intends to fill a market in a definable niche, in a better, more cost effective, or more widely distributable way.
if the filings and the company history do not show growth towads defined goals faster than the price is growing, it’s overvalued.
it might be a whore stock to trade. you might get affectionate about it, and want t take some home.
before u do, check for crabs. “crabs” in this case include terms like “about to” “beginning” “development stage” and most important…”debt.”
as the events of the last year show, debt does not go away.
debt/equity swaps are great…if u are on th low sde of the basis in your own postion. nothing to be afraid of. it showsthe financers still beleive in the ticker.
ever heard of rand mcnally? sure you have. for about 1/2 a century it was traded on the pink sheets. thus, if a ceo says a biz plan goal is to get onto a major exchange–be wary.
if the stock can’t get above 4 based on revenue potential seen by a broad market, what is the ceo going to do??
hehe…you don’t wanna know…or actually, you do, since u will either be able to trade the media game, or get traduced by it.
sec filings are in plain english. if they don;t seem like it, be careful.

Posted under business

recently i have seen a lot of ads for software that claims to spot
upcoming two-baggers for you, out of a zillion or so "penny stocks"
"penny stocks" is an old term meaning very little.
another term is nasd:obb whch means the ticker meets some very small prereqs.
 the usual only pre-re is that some mm will make the "market".
becuase once upon a time, not all that long ago, there were pink sheets,
there were blue sheets for pork, red sheets for beef,
pink sheets for thinly trded stocks, such stocks were called "pinks."
 this program
http://makemoneyathomeadnetwork.com/link/24/
masked here to protect the guilty,
runs thousands of such stocks and does candlestick analysis on them.
candlestick analysis is the original t/a, invented in japan 200 years ago.
 this program looks for breakouts.
it uses a central rlational database and sees what people choose to look at.
 because of this, the owners are able to see who likes what.
 this knowledge gves an edge that influences the chart.
 i tested the software, and it had better than a random wall average.
just about every ticker it liked was a dog, whore stock, being run.
 run by omebody who neded the momo to make a deal.
 those who are fast enough on the trigger might be able to use it.
those who are not dead fast on the trigger may get run over by it.
   many people offer to sell it to you.
that suggests to me the money is in the sale not the product.
  that would be dd in action.
so what dd  do u do?
 peter lynch once said, if you don’t uderstand it-don’t own it.
is that true for your port?
 

Posted under business