Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

the recent 10k has btx telling the sec it is getting out of the volume expander and solutions game.

that means about $40mm in shareholder’s deficit will be unrecoverable.

when mikey moved from his seat on the bod to the ceo slot, the first thing he did was go to switzerland for a conference and buy a $750k seat license to a genomic data base. he then started a “subsidiary” to promote that database.
when cirm was handing out grant $$$, mikey got some for the purpose of getting actual quality control into the shotgun cloning platform.
somebody else–the university system–got a grant to develop a genomic database for the cirm grantees,
and mikey lost again.
now, a “new” proposal: create yet another subsidiary, for the purpose of funding a way to sell xennex’s gene card platform, and pay for that seat by issuing 1mm shares of the new subsidiary’s stock to xennex. since over the pasat 5-10 years the xennex “genecard” platform has emerged as one of the more efficient tools in bioinformatics, where the action actually is.
:” in an arrangement for links to LifeMap Sciences’ database from GeneCards. XenneX will receive an option to acquire 1,000,000 shares of LifeMap Sciences common stock. ”
is there a mkt for the stock?
yes, because ak and milkey will be vested with tonnes of shares, and when they want some cash, they can arrnage with garfies for the 1502-c  when the time comes for mikey and ak to cash in.
the prudent speculator may note that xennex moved from nowhere to about the top of the heap in the arena without evvver thinking about doing an ipo.

the priudent speculator will note that xennex has been selling seat licenses for quite a while, and that just like the millipore “partnership” there appears to be nothing in this new deal binding xennex in any way from doing whatever business it wants to. indeed, it already has long term contracts all over the place, such as

http://www.xennexinc.com/jp/company/press-room/epo-press-release.html

will this add to btx “value” ??
btx will be taking $833,300 of 1x cash and attempting to create sales in excess of $105k per year of “gene card” product.
that would be a break even.
except of course that mikey, ak, and a xennex insiders will be splitting 1/3 or so of the o/s as performance options, so that the enterprise can keep consistent funding.
call it $150k sales minimum per year for break even on valuation.
if and when there is an ipo of “lifemap” and no further funding has gone into it, and btx has let go of no more cash or stock than it has.
since the first $750k spent into genomic db went nowhere, i have to guess that this $830k goes nowhere as well, but that garfies, neil, et al will toss in another pile of cash from their btx marginability and get the puppy rolling.
good enuff for the science side. from the stock side, less than a wash.
why? because a share price of 7 1/2 for this puppy prices in more than all the next 10 years of earnings from the existing subsidiariees.

as has been every “subsidiary” btx has formed.
the 10q will be out before 0515, and speculators will have a very clear look at what btx has accomplished in 2011 towards sustaining itself without further dilution.
this new 8-k gives the hint: very little.

Posted under business

the so-called pure plays in stem cells, “regenerative medicine” are biotime, on amex, and actc, on ob.

having taken a close look at btx lasat week, it seems only fair to look at actc. especiallly when actc is such a total rat.

i am going to use the same ridiculously optimistic metricks i used for btx: 1x cash and hard assets, plus 3x the rational book value of intellectual property, plus 50 times sales.

by way of comparison, gern trades for ~3x cash, or 170x sales. apple…hardly a trailing edge dinosaur trades at <3x sales, trades at 15x ebitda.

so to look at a “story stock”–where the question is what are the odds of there ever being ebitda–requires utterly irrational valuations at the present, as a way of speculating about the future.

here’s the highlight reel from the actc 10k:

intellectual property

:”Due to our current stage of development, our existing patent portfolio is not currently supporting a marketed product, so we will not suffer from any reduction in product revenue from patent expiration. Any actual products that we develop are expected to be supported by intellectual property covered by current patent applications that, if granted, would not expire for 20 years from the date first filed.”
plain english: not being amortised becuase there is nothing to amortised.
relationship with university of massachusets:
“We are currently behind on our payments of all UMass license fees, since 2008, and as such we are in breach of the license agreement. ”
:”We also agreed to make milestone payments to UMass of up to $1,630,000 upon the achievement of various development and commercialization milestones. Finally, we have agreed to pay UMass 18% of all sublicense income.”

incoming royaltys?
:”Exeter is required to pay an annual maintenance fee for the license, equal to $100,000 in 2005, increasing annually by $50,000 up to $500,000. Exeter’s obligation to pay the annual maintenance fee was suspended until certain intellectual property that is the subject of litigation, namely the matter styled University of Massachusetts v. James M. Robl and Phillipe Collas , Massachusetts Superior Court, Suffolk County, Docket No. 04-0445-BLS, was settled in dispute. Negotiations  are continuing ”

plain english? value 0.
:”We expect that Lifeline Exclusive License Agreement Number 1, as amended, will be further amended as a result of the Start Settlement and the settlement of University of Massachusetts and Advanced Cell Technology, Inc. v. Roslin Institute (Edinburgh), Geron Corporation and Exeter Life Sciences, Inc. , U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (Case No. 1:05-cv-00706 RMU), and University of Massachusetts and Advanced Cell Technology, Inc. v. Roslin Institute (Edinburgh), Geron Corporation and Exeter Life Sciences, Inc. , U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (Case No. 1:05-cv-00353 RMU).”
plain english? value 0..minus legal costs.
:”. Lifeline is required to pay us royalties equal to 6% of net sales of products and services covered by the license, and a minimum royalty fee of $25,000 in the first year, plus, commencing 12 months after the effective date of the agreement, additional minimum royalty fees in the amount of $7,500 at 12 months, $7,500 at 24 months, $6,875 at 36 months, and $15,000 annually thereafter. Lifeline also paid a license fee in the amount of $225,000 in cash on June 1, 2007.

:”We expect that Lifeline Exclusive License Agreement Number 3, as amended, will be further amended or terminated, as a result of the dissolution of Infigen and the acquisition by us of certain of the Infigen patent rights.”
plain  english? $750k worth of i/p…to be taken to bottom line @ 3x. as generous speculative value.

:”Start Licensing License - On August 30, 2006, we entered into a Settlement and License Agreement with UMass and Start Licensing, Inc. (indefinite license period). See description of this agreement above. Pursuant to this agreement, we granted Start Licensing a worldwide, exclusive, fully paid-up and royalty-free license, with the right to grant sublicenses, to certain patent rights for use in connection with all uses and applications in non-human animals. The agreement was reached in connection with the settlement of the patent interference actions. The terms of the agreement also includes an initial payment to us, which has been made, and certain milestone payments. In addition, under the agreement, Start, Geron Corporation and Roslin Institute (”Roslin”) each agree not to sue us under certain patent applications owned by Roslin.”
plain english? value 0. but, for the sake of absolute generosity based on future speculations by “start”..$100 k…3x to bottom line.

:”Terumo Agreement - Diacrin, Inc. and Terumo Corporation entered into a development and license agreement on September 4, 2002 (indefinite license period)”….”The milestone consisted of a Phase I clinical trial for the Myoblast Program in Japan and was extended for two years. This agreement is no longer in effect as of December 31, 2010. ”
value? 0.
:”Transition Holdings, Inc. - On December 18, 2008, we entered into a license agreement with an Ireland-based investor, Transition Holdings Inc. (“Transition”), for certain of our non-core technology (indefinite license period). This license was terminated effective February 9, 2011. ”
:”Stem Cell & Regenerative Medicine International, Inc. - On December 1, 2008, the Company and CHA Bio & Diostech Co., Ltd. (“CHA”), a leading Korean-based biotechnology company focused on the development of stem cell technologies, formed an international joint venture. The new company, Stem Cell & Regenerative Medicine International, Inc. (“SCRMI”), will develop human blood cells and other clinical therapies based on our Hemangioblast Program, one of our core technologies. SCRMI has agreed to pay the Company fee of $500,000 for an exclusive, worldwide, license to the Hemangioblast Program (indefinite license period). ”
plain english? discounted cash flow of $500k over 20years.
most generous analysis? $100k to bottom line.
:”CHA – On May 21, 2009, we have entered into a licensing agreement (indefinite license period) ”
most generous pov? $300k a year towards gross sales, 50x.

:”In 2008, we entered into a license agreement (indefinite license period) whereby we licensed to Embryome Sciences certain cell processing technologies, including the technology licensed from Kirin Beer.We received an up-front payment of $470,000 and will receive royalties from future sales of product that utilizes the technologies from the licenses. ”
so..does actc retain the strong “brain trust” factor that developed all this i/p?
:”In 2008, we entered into a new partnership (CHA) and as a result, we are subject to 3rd party interests (see RISKS RELATED TO THIRD PARTY RELIANCE) and control issues, not the least of which relates to certain of our employees no longer being exclusively managed by us. We therefore could be at risk for losing key employees. Additionally substantial operating and working capital will be required and there is no assurance that CHA Biotech Co. limited, partner in our joint venture, will be able to fund their requirements. ”

doe actc expect any changes?
to cover its liability to the sec, actc made sure it put this sentence into bold faced italics:
:”Over the last two years we have narrowed our potential product pool to focusing on our Retinal Program as well as the applications of our I.P.S. technology, which will limit our revenue sources. ”
fact: the retinal program was authorised by the fda under “orphan” status–which includes the fda’s accountants calculating the effort as being a money losing proposition.

so, what does actc actually think about the stability of its intellectual property?
:”Risks Related to Intellectual Property

Our business is highly dependent upon maintaining licenses with respect to key technology.

Several of the key patents we utilize are licensed to us by third parties. These licenses are subject to termination under certain circumstances (including, for example, our>>> failure to make minimum royalty payments or to timely achieve development and commercialization benchmarks<<<<). The loss of any of such licenses, or the conversion of such licenses to non-exclusive licenses, could harm our operations and/or enhance the prospects of our competitors.

Certain of these licenses also contain restrictions, such as limitations on our ability to grant sublicenses that could materially interfere with our ability to generate revenue through the licensing or sale to third parties of important and valuable technologies that we have, for strategic reasons, elected not to pursue directly. The possibility exists that in the future we will require further licenses to complete and/or commercialize our proposed products. We cannot assure you that we will be able to acquire any such licenses on a commercially viable basis. ”
s actc admits, it’s already falling behond, and states it has no plans for catching up.

what does actc actually have as the basis of its intellectual property estate??
:”Certain parts of our know-how and technology are not patentable. To protect our proprietary position in such know-how and technology, we intend to require all employees, consultants, advisors and collaborators to enter into confidentiality and invention ownership agreements with us. We cannot assure you, however, that these agreements will provide meaningful protection for our trade secrets, ”
plain english? value 0.
as actc itself says:
:”. Our success will depend, to a substantial degree, on our ability to obtain and enforce patent protection for our products, preserve any trade secrets and operate without infringing the proprietary rights of others. We cannot assure you that”
:”We are not in full compliance with some of our license agreements.

We are not in full compliance with some of our licenses (see Our Intellectual Property in the DESCRIPTION OF BUSINESS section of this prospectus) and due to limited financial resources we cannot guarantee that we will regain full compliance status. If we are unable to be in compliance with our license agreements, our business may be harmed.”

the california welfare checks, the cirm grants:
“For-profit entities may be prohibited from benefiting from grant funding .

There has been much publicity about grant resources for stem cell research, including Proposition 71 in California.  While the California Institute CIRM has provided grant funds to some for-profit entities, there is no guarantee that it will continue to do so, particularly given the state’s current budgetary conditions.”

yeah. crony capitalism may be reduced to the level of the good ole boys alma mater’s getting welfare…but not their landlords, suits, and cult members.
endless dilution???
:”As of December 31, 2010, on an aggregated basis our debt and preferred stock financings may result in being converted into 6,400,425 shares of our common stock, and warrants and options that may be converted into approximately 183,307,361 shares of our common stock. ”

how does this dawg plan on keeping the doors open??

:”We plan to fund our operations for the next twelve months primarily from the following financings:As of December 31, 2010, $1,581,834 is available to us upon the sale of our Series A-1 preferred stock for a maximum placement commitment of $5 million.
·

As of December 31, 2010, $21 million is available to us upon the sale of our Series C preferred stock for a maximum placement commitment of $25 million. We continue to repay our debt financings in shares of common stock, enabling us to use our cash resources to fund our operations.

so… with all the terrain discussed, now there can be motion towards valuation.

revenues? i’m calling it all sales @ 50x.
$725,044
cash @ 1x.
$400k  for property and future royalty..@ a wildly generous 3x    $1.2 mm

subtotal?  $2mm.

i/p listed above@3x??? $2.5mm.
i/p listed above as towards future sales @ 50x???
$1.5mm.
subtotal? $4mm

grand total?? $6,000,000. ….$6mm.
that’s all that is here.
what is the o/s??
1,218,190,921

price per share??
$0.005

that’s what actc is “worth.” no more. nada.
remove the corspicle cultists, the mikey cultists,
the manipulation, and the play value of actc sotck as a ticket for chickenpoop bingo, and that is what is there. tops.
can a chickenpoop bingo player win on trading actc.ob??
only so long as every rounds trip has a basis < $0.005 and adds whatever nut is required for risk premium.
a look at the actc.ob yhoo boards gives clear evidence over the years that this is exactly what the “actc” “longs” are doing….as the the daily tape.
the vol speaks for itself.

towards gaap?
as laffable as that is, it’s a factor.
:”  As of December 31, 2010, we have an accumulated deficit of $180,949,523 and a stockholders’ deficit of $23,653,090. ”

the f/a value of this whore will remain @ 0 forever.

it  is only the “wild speculation” value that reaches $0.005

everything above that is chicken poop bingo.

Posted under business

sec filings:
in the 10k biotime asserts its reasoning in methodology is “per sec guidelines”.
however, on aug3, 2010, biotime was forced to acknowledge in writing that this is an unwarranted assumption: “the company is responsible for the adequacy and accuracy of the disclosure in the filing;
staff comments or changes to disclosure in response to staff comments do not foreclose the Commission from taking any action with respect to the filing; the company may not assert staff comments as a defense in any proceeding initiated by the Commission or any person under the federal securities laws of the United States.”

http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/876343/000087634311000014/filename1.htm

does biotime care?
from today’s 10k:
:”Critical Accounting Policies

Revenue recognition - We comply with SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin guidance on revenue recognition.”

my conclusion? the same sec that couldn’t be bothered to checck bernie madoff’s dtc records has reasons to look at how biotime keeps its books.

heading towards revenue..not achieving it:
:”In 2011, ReCyte Therapeutics intends to begin to build a near-term revenue business by offering a service to reverse the developmental aging of human cells, and to generate blood and vascular progenitors, for cell banking purposes.”

in other words, “recyte” which has been priced into the winner’s column for 2 years, a substantial part of the trip from 2 to 4+ and amex listing, has no actual business in place after 2 years.
instead, having pulled in enough $millions from stockholders, it “intends” to “begin” something or other.
not begin it.
biotime asia:
very positive information for btx longs.
:”NMMI may increase its percentage ownership interest in BioTime Asia to up to 39% if”….
6 years out there is a $100mm gross in asia, or an ind in 2 years.
so…6 years from now (assuming 30% towards ebitda) biotime asia might be sending $30mm a year
back to alameda, for maybe 40 cents a share to the top line.
that would price biotime ~$6 —6 years from now.
an excellent reason to accumulate <2 net now.

now:
since however, btx is trading now at some proce or another, 2010’s actual numbers are the ones that count:
:”During 2010 … we spent $7,892,024,” on r&d.
:”Our net losses for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010, … $10,103,872.
:”Future clinical trials of new therapeutic products will be very expensive and will take years to complete. ”
of course btx may find partners, tho it has a serious history of not being able to keep them.
but, very directly, to the extend there is partnership, there is reduced revenue upon success.
what is left to measure is btx’s ability to succeed on its own.
in what environment?
:”
Competing products are being manufactured and marketed by established pharmaceutical companies
“is a risk that our competitors may succeed at developing safer or more effective products that could render our products and technologies obsolete or noncompetitive.”
yup. indeed.
while mikey “intends to begin”, others are >>doing <<, using far better presuppositions and ontologival models, and are as a result in the marketplace.
:”
so???
:”It is likely that additional sales of equity or debt securities will be required to meet our short-term capital needs, unless we receive substantial revenues from the sale of our new products “…which, as noted, will not be happening anytime near today.

so… how long…how long, til that old train be gone??
:”At December 31, 2010, we had $33,324,924 of cash and cash equivalents on hand. ”

so, what is biotime “worth”"??

using the model i built a couple of weeks ago,
1x tangible book, plus
3x intangible >plus<
8x hex sales, >>>plus<<
50x stem sales
(and i cheerfully note that ben graham is rolling in his grave, but this is after all, a “story stock”)

$35mm
$<1mm
$5mm
—–
$41 mm
shares??? 40mm.

$1 a share.

so: a price range… $1-2. that’s all there is.

those who like this puppy, who buy the story for whatever corpsicle, stem cell, transhumanist reasons,
whatever personal health problems that might lead them to want biotime to succeed, that’s what’s there.

the rest is whore stock gaming, betting on ball games for the sake of the bet, blue devils vs. whatever.
there’s $$$ to be accumulated playing that game.
but that is >>not<< prudent speculation.
this is perhaps made utterly clear by looking at hextend, which works. hextend is a great product.

however, btx stock traded in the amex is not hextend. what does hextend do to prevent trauma in a portfolio?
hextend:
:”This change was made due to the fact that too much of the product was being distributed to ground troops for inclusion in field packs and was going unused beyond the expiration date, so a different pattern of distribution was deemed advisable. ”
since the >>primary<< benefit of hextend, the unique hypercalcemic electrolytes’ effect of trauma cascade is being deemed to be not cost efficient,
hextend is in trouble.
how come? assuming a cost per unit of <$18, and a seriously optimistic 6/1 waste ratio, the military is saying it sees < $126 worth of improved survivability and los in the product.
are there other indicators??
:”A Phase III clinical trial using Hextend in surgery, funded by Maruishi, was conducted in Japan, but work on the trial has not been completed. Due to the withdrawal of Maruishi “…
if the trials were at all favourable would maruishi have quit???
:”Summit will need to find a replacement sublicensee or other source of funding”
and >>>why<<< isn’t biotime paying for it???
the olny business based rational reason is that betting on a favourable outcome would generate less revenue than would be spent.
given this  week in tokyo, if hextend worked in surgery, would the japanese be desperate for it?
does the damage tally from japan show that the japanese are always willing to spend to ensure a better outcome in a crisis? clearly yes. the damage from the events is far less than it would have been in the usa, specificallly becuase of preventative spending over 60 years.

hextend revenues total world wide for 2010?
$1.2mm.. with the patent life on the serious downside.

biotime stock prospects?? about like hextend’s.

Posted under business

just last evening somebody with decent brains and a truly  dark and evil nom de net asked me

:”what in Gods green earth do you see in cbai? ”

first off… readers are invited to re-read
http://baltbear-on-finance.com/uncategorized/dancing-with-w-stocks

cbai… ok… let’s suppose that
1. random “stemcell”  plays from actc to btix, and on thru the alphabet are actually just fronts for the cults of singularity/corpsicle/trasnhuman…>>>always<<< a safe bet unless there is clear evidence to the contrary–
and therefore will always trade a shot at ebitda for a “new line of investigation.”
2.that congress under the current whack jobs will not do anything about repealing whatever that paragraph is that courts finally noticed makes everything but adult stem cell research unlawful for fed welfare bux, and that all states but ca will be pounding on congress door to “no earmark” them a place on the nipple;
a. let us note that the chick from colorado “spearheading” the repeal took like 7 phreaking years to get the idea thru congress that letting people actually know about e-coli outbreaks in food >before< people started dying was a bright idea;
b. let us spose that people with an opinion on embryos and such whio can get a repub style congressman on the phone are more prevalent than lettuce farmers, who were able to stall the e-coli thingy…
3. that cirm is actually just a hedge for the ca commercial real estate mkt…as already noted…and that jerry brown cannot squeeze blood out of turnips as well as the gubernator had been doing.
4. that paul was correct in saying—but never. ever..nevver.. doing anything about–that, other than sex, autologuous anythings are better than ones from others.
5.  that actual information theory (not cult fantasies) gets more traction in medicine, a mere..like 400 years after the royal academy first rejected the “germ theory.”
6. ur open to owning more “stems” but also would like more than one egg in the basket, and u got lottsa isco.ob.
7. u wanna go bar hopping with a whore stock.
8. if $2k goes down the sewer, it’s no different than a bad night at the boat, other than no free drinks.
9. u get to feel all noble and such… like the cultists do… about “helping humanity.” and have a valid excuse for a change on why the lady has to pass on those new ferragamos..and get bragging rights at the parish instead.
10.. play the total zillion/1 longshot and say that the cash coming back into speculation has learned enuff to think about a chance at gaap instead of “billion dollar mkt”… or “growing eyeballs.”

what’s not to like about cbai.ob???

given 1-5 above…can cbai.ob hit 1/8 on a frenzy??
so.. u buy it for 1/100 of 7/16…
if it dips randomly,u buy some more,  off load…trade into accumulation until ur basis is 0ish… not that long a trip…:-)

laws of a baltbear: how do u make $$ on a stock trading below a dime?? u buys lotttttsa it.

Posted under business

regular readers will recall that i have a certain fondness for the macro and the uber-micro
in systems organisation.
towards any number of pumper, boiler-room, poser and ultimately useless proclamations based on weak 19th century ontologies, it may be useful to point out to prudent speculators that ruffly 65% of the human genome is shared with yew trees.
towards places where puppies play, amex.
towards a rat’s dropping free overview in a 10k:
“commercializing its proprietary technology, the iBioLaunch™ platform, for the production of biologics including vaccines and therapeutic proteins. Our strategy is to utilize our technology for development and manufacture of our own product candidates and to work with both corporate and government clients to reduce their costs during product development and meet their needs for low cost, high quality biologics manufacturing systems. Our near-term focus is to establish business arrangements for use of our technology by licensees for the development and production of products for both therapeutic and vaccine uses. Vaccine candidates presently being advanced on our proprietary platform are applicable to newly emerging strains of H1N1 swine-like influenza and H5N1 for avian influenza. ”

towards prudent speculators: my clients in for random small tastes ~2 3/4, following the last improvement in the financials.
goals: 20% roa + shares <1/2.

as the usual btw: recently somebody made the claim that “long term” meant, lol…18 mos.
granted that for quick&dirty irs purposes for speculators,long term means year and a day…
but for >>>investors<< it means 5 years.
laws of a baltbear: (this one vikinged from peter lynch) if u wouldna own it 5 years, don;t own it 5 minutes.

Posted under business

someone suggested that his “buy and hold” strategy..which he says has been getting hit the last 2 quarters is much more intelligent than channeling, rolling,…whatever somebody wants to call “buy relatively cheap, sell relatively high”
this issue is always what is “relative” …
buffet (the one with dairy queen..not krispy kreme) has opined that it’s better to pay a lot for a well run company than get a sheap buy on a badly run one..or words to that effect.
thus, i offer, as a simple corollary to some law of a baltbear, if a puppy has a record of book not converting to sales, then sales multiples cannot be tooo far above reality check time.
when looking at a story stock, xyz.pk, that has $15mm in book, and has turned the last $10mm in cash into <$1mm in gross sales, the valid multiplier for p/s = 0.
if xyz.pk was expected to be getting $10mm in gov’t paid deals, and the gov’t changes its mind, the p/s is now <8.
etcetcetcydydydyydaaa… so if xyz.pk has been rolling 4 - 6 based on people’s expectations of that gov’t welfare, then the changed policy changes the rolling range. if the book val converts to >>actual i/p $$<< like a patent lease for $1mm a year, instead  of an imagined $12mm for the possible maybe o please future value of patents, then book multiplier can be moved up, and xyz.pk will possibly roll in a higher channel.
without a firm grasp on such realities, puppys will become mangy flea carriers in the port.
somebody who complains about other people makiing $$ rolling and channeling, but who refuses to place limit orders more than 10 minutes away from one he expects a fill said,
:”. It is not easy and many times they will skip your order.”
yeah… and???
if it was easy it wouldn;t pay. the idea that anybody can learn charting, and charting is always meaningful, and yhoo gives it for free…yeah. a sucker’s game to suck money to yhoo…
some amateurs think (ok, william james would call them paranoid delusionals) that if they wait til 11:06 to place a limit order for 1k @ 5 1/16, it will get filled, because the specialist is waiting for their order and wants to mess with them, but will be distracted by the sudden order and….. yeah….

more often, the specialist fills orders in an orderly fashion, good ones for him, ok ones for his friends, the rest in order of entry…and when u decide to try for a fill @ 5 1/16, the guy who decided yesterday gets filled, and ur told to wait ur turn…which may never come,,especiallly when the speciualist went naked on 1k @ 7, and covers by buying that 1k @ 5 1/16 himself.

:”Think about it, if someone could pull that off, they would be trading a large Fund somewhere and would not be on yahoo”
one of a few metricks i use in provenancing the cred of random posters. actuallly, it gets pulled off every day, in part by those guys hiring people to cover yhoo boards–and others–with garbage posts,
because those guys >>>are the swings<<<<.

:”A sale at 6 could end up proving very dumb if the stock gets to 7,8,10 etc.”
nope. listening to people who have already turned down 4 baggers because they want 20 is dumb. why? becuase they are, in reality, only trying to infect you with 4 bagger fever.

an entry for the purpose of getting 20% apr is an exit @ 20% apr. anybody who enters the mkt saying “i’m gonna get rich buying this expotic puppy of a story” will get killed. disciplined speculators seek returns..not fortunes… u wanna fortune??? goto vegas. tell elvis i said hi, how’s the diet working out for ya…  fortunes are made by clear-headed use of previously unavailable resources. that’s why the word derives from the latin word for “luck”…not “betting.”

“coulda woulda shoulda” is a child’s game.. the prudent speculator who asks, “how can i make 18%, year after year, thereby doubling my $$ every 4 years..without losing it all??” notices that if he makes 18% in one month, he can be in cds the rest of the year.

of course this attitude is anathema to the promoters who need to find buyers. they will continually preach the idea of never leaving a dime on the table for the next guy–so they can sell you theirs when they know its past time to go. a historical example: what brought leh down?? not being able to find any suckers for their bad paper except themselves until their “profits” consisted of feeds from buying and selling to themselves. the “buy and hold” market –including the otherwise great ben stein–missed that one totallly. laws of a baltbear “always leave money on the table for the next guy.”

:”some who are not even in the stock, telling people what to do????????”
anyone telling anyone what to do without a loaded gun stuck in their mouth is a poser playing one or another sociallly acceptible sand box games.

those who like this puppy and want to trust management will trade for a basis like that of management.

there are dozens of varieties of stating that fact. but most of them are disguised to sound righteous, and noble…and lulling….into a deadly sleep . a variant is to declare a holding “an investment for the future” and thus..not something to be watched, cared for, bought and sold..that works for actual “investments”–that is, castings of bronze or gold. but since the book of Daniel, it has been notably stupid to over-value such investments.

let’s get specific: are “stem cells” the new “beanie babies” ????

if one does not run a continual check of that problem, yes.

is information emerging so that “stem cells” as source material can be bypassed??
yup.
steadily.
the question is..with what economic utility??

those who want to roll over for the posers and the self-righteous will pay attention to garbage of future predictions like “50″  for some dog and keep making donations to insiders, their running buddies and the cult members.

to a specific puppy, btim.amex …
the buy and hold types are saying:”I think smart money added anywhere in the 4’s and is holding this particular stock for much higher prices.

Trading BTIM will likely lead someone to a major opportunity cost down the road and they will miss more gains then any short term profits they banked. Short term profits are taxed more aggressively and incur commission expenses as well.”

to which i reply, consistently…
ok…lol..u keep telling ur clients that.

and i’ll tell mine what i tell them…and offering a few freebies about how to do the dd on the story, and how to avoid the sharks.

and  “10″   and “4 - 6 with spikes” will continue to define the space, with “8″ as a measuring rod.

fd: i have been both paid and thanked for keeping people out of btim.
fd: clients in a related puppy, isco.ob.

Posted under business

Advanced Life Sciences Holdings, Inc., that is to say, adls.ob–cause who really cares
what some puppy is called, the issue is what’s the ticker?–hit yesterday for the “whore stock”
portfolio. Client’s entry points? $0.055. In my voodoo that’s 1/100 of 5 1/2…or, perhaps, 1/10 of 9/16.
why mention that conversion? laws of a baltbear:” how do you make $$ on true “penny” stocks? u buys lottsa it.”

note that this entry price is wellll above the 52 week low…for reasons tba in this post…

here’s the story: pneumonia is still a major killer in the usa, and will be getting more that way as the idiots of the health care industry help more and stronger drug resistent versions of strep to evolve, kind of like the way stem cell ceos create evolutionary pressure favoring due diligence.

adls.ob claims, in a way the fda finds plausible to talk about, to have a 1x a day pill that slams into all these hard-guy germs. it says it has its ducks in a row to the point it can ask for fast track status for the investigation, etc.

the next “vaccine scare” that floats across the usa will loft this puppy like lbj with a beagle…regardless of the realitys involved. thus..a whore stock.

here’s why the story matters: like all these puppies, the books were a disaster; hence the fall from the last vaccine scare being like from 13/16 to 1/16. debt all over the place, no $ in the treasury, etc…
but, like isco.ob, some actual cash finds cred in the story. that includes the ceo/chief scientist. after a d/e swap, and a fair sized tranche, adls.ob is back in the hunt.  thus, never mind  if adls.ob has a cure for the nation’s worst epeidemic–dd failure–if there can never be entrance into the mkt place, and can never be attribution to common.

the target range for the prudent speculator is—as always–20% roi + shares cheaper than insiders to
30% roi, to 20% roi plus share at 0. that’s a narrow range here, because the current meaningful insider price is $0.022. and the puppy is sitting at 0.060…

this is thus a play money whore stock. ..with possible huge upside.

thru it’s own merits in execution of biz plan, combined with the inevitable next “plague stock rally”, 1 is doable. if i were advising adls.ob i’d be looking to move a large tranche @ 5/8ish at such a time…
and that’s a trip to 10bag city arizona for those who ignore whatever pump&bucket house that will work the deal.

i am neither recommending, nor not recommending adls.ob.

if this puppy looks good to you with ur own dd, well…there it is.

and again, fd: clients in adls.ob.

Posted under business

here are 2 dialogs to answer that ever popular question:

how do you give quantification to the future?

A day or 3 ago, isco.ob concluded a deal. the deal has terms. they are readable….but not yet filed with the sec (isco is draggy on that…)

the deal involves $10mm. to which i commented: so what?
the deal appears to value isco’s i/p at this moment at $40mm…to which i said, that’s a large “what.”

a sometimes intelligent person asked me:

:”Are you for real balt??????”

very much so…

:”(during these particular times), ”
u mean when capital is buying junk paper at rates that ensure the double dip???
are u watching the spread between t-bills and corporate junk?? that tells the prudent speculator that cash inflows for speculation are masssive. (people who think of tv as a news source get confused by the dow not being 18ooo or whatever, and think that means that there’s no capital to be had…but the ability of industry to float crap bonds at <6% says plenty of $$$ is chasing a home..)

:”does not dilute we shareholders,” if it had it would be negative….and not “so what”…
(people who think buying retail common shares of a puppy with no ebitda is “investing” usually end up double and triple counting any positives. “no change” = 0 …..not +.

:”comes through on it’s promise ” –if that isn’t pretty much a given, it’s worth 0.
so it gets no points for being above 0–it was already there.
(this same class of speculators and gamblers are so used to enabling mgt failure that mgt competence is read as a miracle. that is, mgt failure is the fault of a “weak market” “investor ignorance” “obama/bush/fda/reptiles from outer space, and mgt competence is a miracle who needs all our money—in spite of the obvious fact that retail purchase of common puts >>>no<<< money into corporate treasuries. it does make it much easier for insiders to raise capital by showing actual investors what the mkt is as they roll over their positions.)

:”while still being a developmental stage company”
that’s the btim koolaid on your breath…a puppy that has been “development stage” since 1992…

:”the company is pulling rabbits out of it’s hat ”
if i thought that…i’d tell clients to dump asap… there’s only so many rabbits in any given hat..

:”That is a big WHAT in my book. Bought more today.”
that’s nice. tiredof probably has a bridge in ft washington he can lease you cheap…if ak gets  a cut.
(that’s a reference to btim.amex, whose ceo holds himself out as the world’s #1 expert on stem cells, regardless of harvard, warf, etcetcetc… )

:”I would like to hear some of the directors that are responsible for closing these deals speak. ”
i want them to keep their mouths shut and keep working…but be able to do better than have i/r brag about minimal compliance on date of a 10q…

:”As far as ip goes, not possible to put a price on it yet”
that’s compleat nonsense. if u can;t put a price on something, the price is 0.

:”but 40 million? Ridiculously low. ”
well then, isco got screwed, didn;t it????
and all the ydydyydaaa smoke u said first means nothing.
(btim, frinstance, trades in part based on a putative valuation of a patent estate it >leases<, and of patent applications that are years from approval..and therefoire value @ ??? $.0.00 ..until cash flow from those patents is measurable.

:”You have 10 million people in need of corneas ”
that’s already been thoroly discussed..and comes down to 1 point:
that’;s nice–how much $$$ do they have?

:”it looks like we are there already” not to anyone who knows the drill. (actual IND, phase i,ii,iii, etc will require…2 years? 4? how many millions in paperwork??? enough for another tranche of funding to be necessary. but..in my analysis, isco can get seriuous and have the next tranche be > 1 7/16–which makes any buying now at retail the equivalent of “insider prices.”)

:”I could go on and on as I did before regarding all the other potential.”
yes…as you have, many times, without even beginning to do any actual dd…

:”The ip is likely worth much more then 40 million.”
whatever….then scream at aldrich how the krauts shafted him….

i am working from the data at hand:
somebody is excecuting a biz plan.
somebody who knows the biz says full access to 20% of the i/p is worth $10mm..

prudent speculators will note that this is a solid deal…and run their numbers, and run their voodoo.
and will be accumulating hard.

is the difference between these 2 pov obvious?? yeah. and yet, that poster is long isco, and i have clients long isco.

he’s long because isco management miraculously found $10mm.
i;m long because intelligent people ran a valuation, and thast valuation supports a price closer to 1 1/2 than 1…

he’s long isco because they’re going to growing eyeballs any day now.
i’m long becuase isco is steadily closing in on actual prodict and praxis that will lead to sales higher than overhead.

each decision i am making is based on a quant. that quant may be difficult to see—but if it can;t be seen, it’s worth 0.

no matter what the talk.

story stocks are about the odds of walking the talk.

from another board, a closely related discussion…what’s the “story” and what quants are there.
this one is a high point (in re the reduction in venom from a pawn of insider $$…) that also may help clarify to the prudent speculator what due diligence is.

:”BTIM sells stem cells and takes an interest in the upside of the discovery that may be created”
btim is certainly free to make such contracts with anyone who would fall for them….
on the other hand, millipore doesn’t.
:”Had You attended the annual meeting you would have known that, ” at the last ..lol..annual meeting, 9 months prior, numerous shareholders left with the understadning of how important rgi/nih direction was–and mikey was doing dog&pony on it—just a few days before nih said no.
and then it was never the plan at all.
now it is true that anytime mikey/garfies/ak/neal want to they can give judy $35 on her debit card and another “wholly owned subsidiary to…” can appear.
:”what makes Harvard the expert? only your opinion…”
rotfl….
u forgot to dis warf….
:”when anything comes Out in the Media, Dr West is the first person”
cuase he takes the call, knows how to put on makeup and can do 8 second soundbytes.
how come when there is a real peer review conference on stem cells, mikey is always too busy hyping whatever puppy he’s doing to have actual work to present?
:”plan to be the picks & shovels supplier dictates constant predictable cash flow, thus steady long term growth, once again, ”
yup. totallllly. yup. u betcha..of course, that discounts ur opening point, unless dealing with somebody so broke that they pay for picks and shovels by offering a shares in the mine…which is not predictiable cash flow.
:”just like anything the components cost bucks and one company can get rich creating the components, to deny that is foolish…”
yes. one company can–if it has both first mover and quasi-monopoly…like 65% of potentuial mkt share… it’s sometehing i read for when i’m looking at proposals.
or–if it can be made cheap enuff, and then have a ginormous markup for convenience.
:”Millipor picked Biotime,” not in evidence as to who went to whom… even if mil initaited, yeah, they were adding stem cells to the mix..a 150 page catalog…which was 150 pages thick when btim signed on to have 2 items in it.

:”post their names,”
post urs…u impotent boytoy poser…

:”look at calculators”…yeah..go ahead..look…i watched the price of a hot handheld ti move from $1200 to $10 for the same functions over 8 years…and to $1 over the next 5.
cars? tata is on ther mkt at like $2600….

:”and Balt not all lottery tickets are a buck,” i’ll take ur word for it…not a part of my portfolio strategy…

:”and insiders continue to invest more funds,”
yup. so determining >>>>their basis<<<< is the issue.
and those who like this puppy should be trading to get a basis like that of insiders…which is close to 0.

(this cannot be stressed enough. the prudent speculator should not be lazarus at the gate, waiting for a dog to lick his wounds. the prudent speculator does not homage the insiders and grant them some natural right to more profits. if insiders will finance so that gthey are functionallly in @ $1–then prudent speculators will trade to that basis. “buy and hold” is an abomination–a false god that lets the pumpers, bucket shops, and insiders keep drawing their bonuses at the speculator’s expense, usually by telling him he is an “investor.” )

:”so he helped me make over 1000% on my money, not you.. ”
u’ve reported before being in this puppy at 4ish ion the way down…or 4ish on the way up the first time after ak came on board…

but u are in fact making the critical point again: those in this puppy <2 have reason to like it a lot.
that has nothing >>>>at all<<<< to do with it at 5 3/8…

(another example of the same problem. the most generous estimate i can give for btim prices 2 1/4. insider finance games keep it above 4. the principal insider is in close to 0. so unless this puppy were offered at <2 1/2….it’s overpriced. can you buy 5 1/2, sell 7, keeping enough shares to share a few odd lots at insiders prices? then, if you like this puppy, go for it. if not, then you’re cannon fodder for the gamers.)

:”sees upside 100 times where the stock is today”
nope…he sees 100x growth in gross revs for the sector.

(Another point that cannnnot be stressed enough. the common stock of a given equity is not the sector, and historically, about 85% of everything goes broke without affecting the sector’s long time story arc. the prudent speculator is invited to read the history of railroad industry financing…hehe)

the issue is how much of that goes to btim ebitda..

that’s “worth” 1 7/8–2 1/2… ak will keep this puppy 4 — 6 with occasional spikes..and keep getting shares at $0 net..

prudent speculators will do the same.

if its 100% your money, your ability to beleive stock board “guidance” is set at 0%.

so…yes. you can quant a fairy tale. one piece of straw at a time.

Posted under business

“In 2005, Nicholas Negroponte  — co-founder of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Media Lab — unveiled a prototype of a $100 laptop for children in the developing world. India rejected that as too expensive and embarked on a multiyear effort to develop a cheaper option of its own.

Negroponte’s laptop ended up costing about $200, but in May his nonprofit association, One Laptop Per Child, said it plans to launch a basic tablet computer for $99.

Sibal turned to students and professors at India’s elite technical universities to develop the $35 tablet after receiving a “lukewarm” response from private sector players. He hopes to get the cost down to $10 eventually.”

MIT’s Media Lab should be one of America’s “elite technincal universities.” One upon a time it was–and still, probably, is.

In comments about this cited news release, at yahoo, the overwhelming response from Americans was that noting is made in America, this device will suck, it’ll be a cool toy. that last comment was the most intelligent, because those who made it usually said that their buying one would support the project.

Evidently, based on pure numbers, pure quant, pure “science” says that MIT made too many decisions that supported profits for the “cool people”.

The MIT  project depends on $100 per unit subsidy from taxpayers of some kind.
:”India plans to subsidize the cost of the tablet for its students, bringing the purchase price down to around $20.” That’s not a difference of just $85 per unit, it is a critical difference of 60% vs 100%.
There is an obvious Forex-like arb in currency conversion, but the % is what it is, and nothing else.

This device from India probably won’t have the panache and real world support of an i-Pad.
Assuming it works 1/3 as well, a retail buyer can get 5 of them, and run them til they break,
and be a full 50% ahead of buying an i-Pad.

But, without cultural changes, they won’t be “cool people.”

America is becoming a nation of “cool people” who have nothing but their self-absorption, living on borrowed money.  o, wait–it always was. the “money” was first the entire capital wealth of the first natrions people from the Quahog to the Lakota. Then it was the entire prodictive output of 100,000,000 slaves and “push” delivered “immigrants” (as opposed to the African slaves who were “pull” delivered.)

and then, in a “better” world, leaving people where they were, and importing their capital assets–neo-colonialism–and then, for the past generation, just importing their money–at interest.

What has America exported to balance this? belief systems it didn’t want. these were workable belief systems, as India, China, and others have shown. but they just weren’t cool anymore.

When the prudent speculator sees some stem cell stock going overseas to get work done, this is not because the USA can’t do it…but because the insiders at that puppy are working for “coolness”–profits on the books. the question then is where does this coolness flow: to the insiders or to common stock. The easy way to measure is whether the non-USA partners are putting skin in the game, or is the “foreign outreach” based on tax scams and buddy-buddy “cool people” partnerships.

Posted under business

Prudent speculators will often be accused of all kinds of things.

Here’s an example of a simple baltbear (your very own host here)  being

accused (in a 3rd person remark..that is..a lack of direct dialog)
“. I personally think he has an agenda which I have told him directly and

the negativity toward the investments of ISCO”

So what’s  with the “negative”??

readers familiar with my pov on isco will note i have 3 clients in isco.ob at

this time. They got there “because I said so.” They are all 3 >>slightly<<

in profit, becuase i got them in after the 1 7/16 support line cracked durin

the series f preferred offering.

But i expect isco to head towards 2 1/2— a near double from here… and

then drift towards 4… after it >proves< something.

Cause in actual bizness–not perpetual stock scams—mgt executes in a

way that can be proven in audited filings—it’s called “revenue.”

That gives me an “agenda.” I don’t tell people isco.ob is going to 10, or

20, or 320….or …whatever…

and there it is….

On the board where isco is being discussed there are 6 or 10 posters
muttering about prices north of 4…without having read the filings that

formed isco in the first place.

this same alleged heavy  hitter  who accused me of “having an agenda”

thought isco.ob was ipo’d on its own name. Thinking such a thing means

they have never read the filings, which show it being a double reverse

merger shell property. ….not that there’s anything wrong with that. doing

so can save more than a few $$$ getting listed.

There’s nothing wrong with that at all. Such a procedure can save

thousands of dollars in useless fees to lawyers and other scum and

basically, i am increasingly convinced over the past 2 years that keeping

lawyers and other scum  as far away from biz formations as possible is

prudent speculation by the entrepreneur.

reducing lawyer exposure and double talk of any kind is something clients

pay me for–and it is usually more rewarding than listening to inventors

dreams of being worth $xyz million any day now….

But since this isco formation is not exactly ancient history, and is publicly

available from the sec, >not knowing it<< is a signal of something–

specifically, lack of prudence.

prudent speculators >>>always<<< read the original s3s…

back to isco.ob: i say this is a place to start nibbling, isco.ob because

2 1/2 is coming back… and that’s “negative” in the minds of those who,

over and over, say “it’s different this time” whether this time is real

estate, the internet, stem cells, “plastics” –going back to “tulips.” (for

those who have taken their proper classes in the art of the arb, for 1k

years before tulips came along, it was usually?  ….wait for it…….
black pepper.

when everyone agrees about how great prospects are it’s time to look

for the koolaid pitcher that is feeeding the hypnotic agreement.

those who doubt this are cordially invited to read the chaerts of aig, fnm,

wamu (o wait, it’s wamu>>q<<) citibank, et al.

personally and professionally i don;t think >>anyone<< is without an

agenda.
the issue is…what >>is<< the agenda, and do you benefit or suffer

by working for/against it…

as an example of objectivity let’s take this statement about the market

size for synthetic corneas :”going blind or had vision problems that could

be rectified by a pair of corneas, I would pay just about anything.”

uhuh…so, that only says u have $$.

it is a fundamental law of econ that u cannot spend more than u have +

what others think u can pay back…unless you steal.

so, towards dd, what % of “10mm people need corneas” can get their

hands on …let’s call it, just to be as long as possible on isco….

$3000????

data? source of data?

the prudent speculator will be finding some dang way that has meaning to

him to look for such numbers.

in the course of the average week i do about 10 hours of reading ranging

from “vogue” to patent filings looking to see what active market

participants actuallly think….not what stock promoters, bucket shops, and

cult members want thought.

for instance, i  can cheeerfully see isco licensing the tech so that

somebody in bumphreakistan gets eyesight, and isco gets
~$15 per event.
that might be 3mm custoimers over 10 years @????
let’s go conservative and say 50mm o/s….. 9 cents a share >>>straight

to the bottom line<<<<…

and people get to see. and isco gets to have a reasonable “fair value” of

4-6…

but pumpers don’t get houses by the lake.

and that is why so many voices on random stock boards see me as a

“basher.”

when somebody wants you to listen to their investment strategy, ask for

their agenda. If they say they have none….run away.

mine is based on observing this item of “laws of a baltbear”
“some want to be sharks, some want to be dolphins–nobody wants to be

tuna.”

if you are nobody–feel free to see if i’m available for consultation.

fd: 3 clients long isco.
and..btw…in my professional and personal opinion the odds on isco

paying corp income taxes during my lifetime are about….zilch, but the

odds on enuff gross revs to support developing i/p without more than one

more round of dilution, and further developing i/p that makes “the story”

“worth” 4 in the next couple years 1/3–but the odds on a rebound to 2

1/2 goood enuff to load up on.
that is neither a recommendation nor an anything…
it just is.

Posted under business