Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

The difference between building a company and pumping a stock can become more obvious by looking at how owners of the stock judge the company’s promotional activity.

Isco.OB undertook the Christmas marketing plan for its subsidiary line of skincare products. While the company was urging buyers to buy product thereby generating revenues for the company, improving its bottom line, and sending it closer to EBITDA, one of the retail holders of the stock complained on its Yahoo discussion board that the company should have the instead been trying to promote the fact that it’d been able to promote itself on Fox news. While some sellers of slice or dice your Gee whiz it does even more but wait operators are standing by now garbage retail products may in fact desire the famous “as seen on TV” to be the Mark of worth, in the world of business stockholders are better served when the CEO appears on television to explain how he will work to reduce the tax liabilities.

Isco.OB has been a dog for much of 2011. This does not change the fact that out of the three “pure plays” in the stem sector Isco remains the number one chance at achieving EBITDA. Gern may become an interesting turnaround play in 2012, since it has formally abandoned its position as a stem play. As a cancer play its present price may attract the prudent speculator.

Full disclosure: clients and Isco OB at under 15/16. Clients in gern overloaded at 1 13/32

When volume and momentum pickup on Isco.OB I expect to be recommending it again .

Posted under business

the so-called pure plays in stem cells, “regenerative medicine” are biotime, on amex, and actc, on ob.

having taken a close look at btx lasat week, it seems only fair to look at actc. especiallly when actc is such a total rat.

i am going to use the same ridiculously optimistic metricks i used for btx: 1x cash and hard assets, plus 3x the rational book value of intellectual property, plus 50 times sales.

by way of comparison, gern trades for ~3x cash, or 170x sales. apple…hardly a trailing edge dinosaur trades at <3x sales, trades at 15x ebitda.

so to look at a “story stock”–where the question is what are the odds of there ever being ebitda–requires utterly irrational valuations at the present, as a way of speculating about the future.

here’s the highlight reel from the actc 10k:

intellectual property

:”Due to our current stage of development, our existing patent portfolio is not currently supporting a marketed product, so we will not suffer from any reduction in product revenue from patent expiration. Any actual products that we develop are expected to be supported by intellectual property covered by current patent applications that, if granted, would not expire for 20 years from the date first filed.”
plain english: not being amortised becuase there is nothing to amortised.
relationship with university of massachusets:
“We are currently behind on our payments of all UMass license fees, since 2008, and as such we are in breach of the license agreement. ”
:”We also agreed to make milestone payments to UMass of up to $1,630,000 upon the achievement of various development and commercialization milestones. Finally, we have agreed to pay UMass 18% of all sublicense income.”

incoming royaltys?
:”Exeter is required to pay an annual maintenance fee for the license, equal to $100,000 in 2005, increasing annually by $50,000 up to $500,000. Exeter’s obligation to pay the annual maintenance fee was suspended until certain intellectual property that is the subject of litigation, namely the matter styled University of Massachusetts v. James M. Robl and Phillipe Collas , Massachusetts Superior Court, Suffolk County, Docket No. 04-0445-BLS, was settled in dispute. Negotiations  are continuing ”

plain english? value 0.
:”We expect that Lifeline Exclusive License Agreement Number 1, as amended, will be further amended as a result of the Start Settlement and the settlement of University of Massachusetts and Advanced Cell Technology, Inc. v. Roslin Institute (Edinburgh), Geron Corporation and Exeter Life Sciences, Inc. , U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (Case No. 1:05-cv-00706 RMU), and University of Massachusetts and Advanced Cell Technology, Inc. v. Roslin Institute (Edinburgh), Geron Corporation and Exeter Life Sciences, Inc. , U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (Case No. 1:05-cv-00353 RMU).”
plain english? value 0..minus legal costs.
:”. Lifeline is required to pay us royalties equal to 6% of net sales of products and services covered by the license, and a minimum royalty fee of $25,000 in the first year, plus, commencing 12 months after the effective date of the agreement, additional minimum royalty fees in the amount of $7,500 at 12 months, $7,500 at 24 months, $6,875 at 36 months, and $15,000 annually thereafter. Lifeline also paid a license fee in the amount of $225,000 in cash on June 1, 2007.

:”We expect that Lifeline Exclusive License Agreement Number 3, as amended, will be further amended or terminated, as a result of the dissolution of Infigen and the acquisition by us of certain of the Infigen patent rights.”
plain  english? $750k worth of i/p…to be taken to bottom line @ 3x. as generous speculative value.

:”Start Licensing License - On August 30, 2006, we entered into a Settlement and License Agreement with UMass and Start Licensing, Inc. (indefinite license period). See description of this agreement above. Pursuant to this agreement, we granted Start Licensing a worldwide, exclusive, fully paid-up and royalty-free license, with the right to grant sublicenses, to certain patent rights for use in connection with all uses and applications in non-human animals. The agreement was reached in connection with the settlement of the patent interference actions. The terms of the agreement also includes an initial payment to us, which has been made, and certain milestone payments. In addition, under the agreement, Start, Geron Corporation and Roslin Institute (”Roslin”) each agree not to sue us under certain patent applications owned by Roslin.”
plain english? value 0. but, for the sake of absolute generosity based on future speculations by “start”..$100 k…3x to bottom line.

:”Terumo Agreement - Diacrin, Inc. and Terumo Corporation entered into a development and license agreement on September 4, 2002 (indefinite license period)”….”The milestone consisted of a Phase I clinical trial for the Myoblast Program in Japan and was extended for two years. This agreement is no longer in effect as of December 31, 2010. ”
value? 0.
:”Transition Holdings, Inc. - On December 18, 2008, we entered into a license agreement with an Ireland-based investor, Transition Holdings Inc. (“Transition”), for certain of our non-core technology (indefinite license period). This license was terminated effective February 9, 2011. ”
:”Stem Cell & Regenerative Medicine International, Inc. - On December 1, 2008, the Company and CHA Bio & Diostech Co., Ltd. (“CHA”), a leading Korean-based biotechnology company focused on the development of stem cell technologies, formed an international joint venture. The new company, Stem Cell & Regenerative Medicine International, Inc. (“SCRMI”), will develop human blood cells and other clinical therapies based on our Hemangioblast Program, one of our core technologies. SCRMI has agreed to pay the Company fee of $500,000 for an exclusive, worldwide, license to the Hemangioblast Program (indefinite license period). ”
plain english? discounted cash flow of $500k over 20years.
most generous analysis? $100k to bottom line.
:”CHA – On May 21, 2009, we have entered into a licensing agreement (indefinite license period) ”
most generous pov? $300k a year towards gross sales, 50x.

:”In 2008, we entered into a license agreement (indefinite license period) whereby we licensed to Embryome Sciences certain cell processing technologies, including the technology licensed from Kirin Beer.We received an up-front payment of $470,000 and will receive royalties from future sales of product that utilizes the technologies from the licenses. ”
so..does actc retain the strong “brain trust” factor that developed all this i/p?
:”In 2008, we entered into a new partnership (CHA) and as a result, we are subject to 3rd party interests (see RISKS RELATED TO THIRD PARTY RELIANCE) and control issues, not the least of which relates to certain of our employees no longer being exclusively managed by us. We therefore could be at risk for losing key employees. Additionally substantial operating and working capital will be required and there is no assurance that CHA Biotech Co. limited, partner in our joint venture, will be able to fund their requirements. ”

doe actc expect any changes?
to cover its liability to the sec, actc made sure it put this sentence into bold faced italics:
:”Over the last two years we have narrowed our potential product pool to focusing on our Retinal Program as well as the applications of our I.P.S. technology, which will limit our revenue sources. ”
fact: the retinal program was authorised by the fda under “orphan” status–which includes the fda’s accountants calculating the effort as being a money losing proposition.

so, what does actc actually think about the stability of its intellectual property?
:”Risks Related to Intellectual Property

Our business is highly dependent upon maintaining licenses with respect to key technology.

Several of the key patents we utilize are licensed to us by third parties. These licenses are subject to termination under certain circumstances (including, for example, our>>> failure to make minimum royalty payments or to timely achieve development and commercialization benchmarks<<<<). The loss of any of such licenses, or the conversion of such licenses to non-exclusive licenses, could harm our operations and/or enhance the prospects of our competitors.

Certain of these licenses also contain restrictions, such as limitations on our ability to grant sublicenses that could materially interfere with our ability to generate revenue through the licensing or sale to third parties of important and valuable technologies that we have, for strategic reasons, elected not to pursue directly. The possibility exists that in the future we will require further licenses to complete and/or commercialize our proposed products. We cannot assure you that we will be able to acquire any such licenses on a commercially viable basis. ”
s actc admits, it’s already falling behond, and states it has no plans for catching up.

what does actc actually have as the basis of its intellectual property estate??
:”Certain parts of our know-how and technology are not patentable. To protect our proprietary position in such know-how and technology, we intend to require all employees, consultants, advisors and collaborators to enter into confidentiality and invention ownership agreements with us. We cannot assure you, however, that these agreements will provide meaningful protection for our trade secrets, ”
plain english? value 0.
as actc itself says:
:”. Our success will depend, to a substantial degree, on our ability to obtain and enforce patent protection for our products, preserve any trade secrets and operate without infringing the proprietary rights of others. We cannot assure you that”
:”We are not in full compliance with some of our license agreements.

We are not in full compliance with some of our licenses (see Our Intellectual Property in the DESCRIPTION OF BUSINESS section of this prospectus) and due to limited financial resources we cannot guarantee that we will regain full compliance status. If we are unable to be in compliance with our license agreements, our business may be harmed.”

the california welfare checks, the cirm grants:
“For-profit entities may be prohibited from benefiting from grant funding .

There has been much publicity about grant resources for stem cell research, including Proposition 71 in California.  While the California Institute CIRM has provided grant funds to some for-profit entities, there is no guarantee that it will continue to do so, particularly given the state’s current budgetary conditions.”

yeah. crony capitalism may be reduced to the level of the good ole boys alma mater’s getting welfare…but not their landlords, suits, and cult members.
endless dilution???
:”As of December 31, 2010, on an aggregated basis our debt and preferred stock financings may result in being converted into 6,400,425 shares of our common stock, and warrants and options that may be converted into approximately 183,307,361 shares of our common stock. ”

how does this dawg plan on keeping the doors open??

:”We plan to fund our operations for the next twelve months primarily from the following financings:As of December 31, 2010, $1,581,834 is available to us upon the sale of our Series A-1 preferred stock for a maximum placement commitment of $5 million.
·

As of December 31, 2010, $21 million is available to us upon the sale of our Series C preferred stock for a maximum placement commitment of $25 million. We continue to repay our debt financings in shares of common stock, enabling us to use our cash resources to fund our operations.

so… with all the terrain discussed, now there can be motion towards valuation.

revenues? i’m calling it all sales @ 50x.
$725,044
cash @ 1x.
$400k  for property and future royalty..@ a wildly generous 3x    $1.2 mm

subtotal?  $2mm.

i/p listed above@3x??? $2.5mm.
i/p listed above as towards future sales @ 50x???
$1.5mm.
subtotal? $4mm

grand total?? $6,000,000. ….$6mm.
that’s all that is here.
what is the o/s??
1,218,190,921

price per share??
$0.005

that’s what actc is “worth.” no more. nada.
remove the corspicle cultists, the mikey cultists,
the manipulation, and the play value of actc sotck as a ticket for chickenpoop bingo, and that is what is there. tops.
can a chickenpoop bingo player win on trading actc.ob??
only so long as every rounds trip has a basis < $0.005 and adds whatever nut is required for risk premium.
a look at the actc.ob yhoo boards gives clear evidence over the years that this is exactly what the “actc” “longs” are doing….as the the daily tape.
the vol speaks for itself.

towards gaap?
as laffable as that is, it’s a factor.
:”  As of December 31, 2010, we have an accumulated deficit of $180,949,523 and a stockholders’ deficit of $23,653,090. ”

the f/a value of this whore will remain @ 0 forever.

it  is only the “wild speculation” value that reaches $0.005

everything above that is chicken poop bingo.

stem cell stock "investment" in actc.ob

Posted under business

Advanced Life Sciences Holdings, Inc., that is to say, adls.ob–cause who really cares
what some puppy is called, the issue is what’s the ticker?–hit yesterday for the “whore stock”
portfolio. Client’s entry points? $0.055. In my voodoo that’s 1/100 of 5 1/2…or, perhaps, 1/10 of 9/16.
why mention that conversion? laws of a baltbear:” how do you make $$ on true “penny” stocks? u buys lottsa it.”

note that this entry price is wellll above the 52 week low…for reasons tba in this post…

here’s the story: pneumonia is still a major killer in the usa, and will be getting more that way as the idiots of the health care industry help more and stronger drug resistent versions of strep to evolve, kind of like the way stem cell ceos create evolutionary pressure favoring due diligence.

adls.ob claims, in a way the fda finds plausible to talk about, to have a 1x a day pill that slams into all these hard-guy germs. it says it has its ducks in a row to the point it can ask for fast track status for the investigation, etc.

the next “vaccine scare” that floats across the usa will loft this puppy like lbj with a beagle…regardless of the realitys involved. thus..a whore stock.

here’s why the story matters: like all these puppies, the books were a disaster; hence the fall from the last vaccine scare being like from 13/16 to 1/16. debt all over the place, no $ in the treasury, etc…
but, like isco.ob, some actual cash finds cred in the story. that includes the ceo/chief scientist. after a d/e swap, and a fair sized tranche, adls.ob is back in the hunt.  thus, never mind  if adls.ob has a cure for the nation’s worst epeidemic–dd failure–if there can never be entrance into the mkt place, and can never be attribution to common.

the target range for the prudent speculator is—as always–20% roi + shares cheaper than insiders to
30% roi, to 20% roi plus share at 0. that’s a narrow range here, because the current meaningful insider price is $0.022. and the puppy is sitting at 0.060…

this is thus a play money whore stock. ..with possible huge upside.

thru it’s own merits in execution of biz plan, combined with the inevitable next “plague stock rally”, 1 is doable. if i were advising adls.ob i’d be looking to move a large tranche @ 5/8ish at such a time…
and that’s a trip to 10bag city arizona for those who ignore whatever pump&bucket house that will work the deal.

i am neither recommending, nor not recommending adls.ob.

if this puppy looks good to you with ur own dd, well…there it is.

and again, fd: clients in adls.ob.

Posted under business

“In 2005, Nicholas Negroponte  — co-founder of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Media Lab — unveiled a prototype of a $100 laptop for children in the developing world. India rejected that as too expensive and embarked on a multiyear effort to develop a cheaper option of its own.

Negroponte’s laptop ended up costing about $200, but in May his nonprofit association, One Laptop Per Child, said it plans to launch a basic tablet computer for $99.

Sibal turned to students and professors at India’s elite technical universities to develop the $35 tablet after receiving a “lukewarm” response from private sector players. He hopes to get the cost down to $10 eventually.”

MIT’s Media Lab should be one of America’s “elite technincal universities.” One upon a time it was–and still, probably, is.

In comments about this cited news release, at yahoo, the overwhelming response from Americans was that noting is made in America, this device will suck, it’ll be a cool toy. that last comment was the most intelligent, because those who made it usually said that their buying one would support the project.

Evidently, based on pure numbers, pure quant, pure “science” says that MIT made too many decisions that supported profits for the “cool people”.

The MIT  project depends on $100 per unit subsidy from taxpayers of some kind.
:”India plans to subsidize the cost of the tablet for its students, bringing the purchase price down to around $20.” That’s not a difference of just $85 per unit, it is a critical difference of 60% vs 100%.
There is an obvious Forex-like arb in currency conversion, but the % is what it is, and nothing else.

This device from India probably won’t have the panache and real world support of an i-Pad.
Assuming it works 1/3 as well, a retail buyer can get 5 of them, and run them til they break,
and be a full 50% ahead of buying an i-Pad.

But, without cultural changes, they won’t be “cool people.”

America is becoming a nation of “cool people” who have nothing but their self-absorption, living on borrowed money.  o, wait–it always was. the “money” was first the entire capital wealth of the first natrions people from the Quahog to the Lakota. Then it was the entire prodictive output of 100,000,000 slaves and “push” delivered “immigrants” (as opposed to the African slaves who were “pull” delivered.)

and then, in a “better” world, leaving people where they were, and importing their capital assets–neo-colonialism–and then, for the past generation, just importing their money–at interest.

What has America exported to balance this? belief systems it didn’t want. these were workable belief systems, as India, China, and others have shown. but they just weren’t cool anymore.

When the prudent speculator sees some stem cell stock going overseas to get work done, this is not because the USA can’t do it…but because the insiders at that puppy are working for “coolness”–profits on the books. the question then is where does this coolness flow: to the insiders or to common stock. The easy way to measure is whether the non-USA partners are putting skin in the game, or is the “foreign outreach” based on tax scams and buddy-buddy “cool people” partnerships.

Posted under business

In a day or three, depending on how the euro is doing as people begin to realise that false claims of progress will always be undone by inefficiencies and corruption, i’ll be talking about the most dangerous words in the speculator’s environment: “it’s different this time”.

recall the crazy valuations in the days of the net bubble?

at the time, it was “different this time.”

recall the “artificial blood” stocks of 98-99?

at the time it was “different this time.”

recall mortgage deals of 2005-2008 as the real estate industry sold off its assets??

at the time it was “different this time.”

i recently picked up a reasonable enough fee for explaining to a guy managing a fair chunk of other people’s money what “the big deal” is with stem cell stocks, from gern to isco.obb.

and is different about pricing them for speculation than is true about f, or ge, or mot…and what was the same, because the ojne thing always true for the prudent speculator is that it is never different this time.

Posted under business

i confine the title a little, for the spyders from google.

as noted about fnm…and prudent speculators who followed my thought a bout it made another above buffet roa recently on it…
there a class of equities one can only justly call whore stocks.
if u have the $$ to risk, they can show u a good time, leave u diseased, and aren;t going to be brought home to meet the folks.
they are often “story stocks”–but then so is fnm, the story being “housing makes america great.”
the prudent speculator stays cold enuff to examine the dd of serious money, when that dd is >seeable<
that is, subject to speculation.
i recently saw an article which gave me some dd from some very competent investigators.
here it is:
:”$3 billion for stem cell research, as authorized by California voters in 2004. Of the $1 billion awarded so far, more than a third — $358 million — flows to Bay Area laboratories.”
so: here is an asset pool, $3bb over 3 years. $1bb a year.
the holders of the asset pool get a benefit no matter the play, since the $$ will be spent in california, creating some cash flow from which the state will take a cut, and the state will be fulfilling its underlying contractual obligation of their being a stake from which to take a cut.
that already makes this a rigged game, one which people who are not from california derive no certain benefit. thus, following this play is already less prudent than it is for californians.
but, hypothetically, let’s say you have $30,000 out of ur working capital to put to stem cells. In itself, that should indicate that you have working capital far higher than $30k, since “stem cells” are by no means the only game in town.
let’s go verry speculative fwd thinking, and say ur totally future loaded, with $500k to work.
there’s solar, biofuel, stem cells, “media”, materials science.  that’s 5…so $100k in each.
so, $100k is to $1bb is easily workable.
a lot of cirm’s $$ will go to universities, again because as long as $$ are in motion in this direction, cirm will be a beneficiary. let’s call it 2/3. that further rigs the deck against you, but it is a price of  doing business as a speculator, obligating you to then get ruffly 3x the ror that cirm gets.
so, you might reasonable say that if cirm puts 1% of its funds on a bet in which you can participate, if you put 3% on the same bet.
if cirm says a corp with a publicly tradeable stock gets 1.6% of it’s $$, then u can, after your own dd, say that 5% of your %% is parity…$5,000 in the example being used.
anything above that suggests the hubris that the speculator knows more than cirm does about stem cell possibilities for making $$ flow.  that decision range is utterly imprudent–utterly stupid.
on the other hand, crim does not care at any given moment what is going on.
therefore, one can “dance” with a given stock, in/out, as long as the commitment is no less prudent than cirm’s.
and now u have a playable whore stock.

the next step is to examine where $$$$$ place their dd. that can be read from filings, and expreses as the basis at which financial insiders are in, with whatever yout own voodoo tells you about black-scholes and the actual events transpiring…not the news releases.
if a year ago, insiders were in at a dime, then paying more than $1.20 is bowing the knee to them. if the stock is trading at 2 7/16, one can trade in/out until a basis close to 1 1/4 is in the port.
thinking that you are not entitled to such a basis is just drinking the  kool-aid offered by the cult leaders.
buffet says it’s better to pay a high price for a great company than a low price for a good one.
but then, he’s talking about stocks with actual events, actual; cash flow, actual markets, and not “stories”.

Posted under business

elsewhere a few boiler room employees and random people who do not yet understand that “the stock doesn’t know you own it”– peter lynch’s classic paraphrase of the principal of insufficient reason–have been paraphrasing my thoughts about the plan by which btiotime (btim.ob) stays in business.

these hypesters maintain that i said biotime (btim.ob) has no business plan. that’s not anything i have ever said at all. but then hypesters exist to push the greed inverse of fud.

so, for the “record”, here is the summary of biotime’s nusainess plan from inception to now, with michael west, the “stem cell guy” at the purported helm, although al (outboard al, twa al, bethlehem steel kingsley) is actually now running the shoppe.

i have never sad that btim has no bizness plan.

the plan, according to btim, as stated in its filings is:

1. license patent estates and repackage them; (being done)
2. license software  for the building of a clearing house for stem cell info; (done);
3. develop a line of reagents and tools for biomedical research (in progress)
4. sell stock to fund the inner circle (being done more and more)
5. use the buzz to get listed on nasd or..lol..amex… (in progress)
6. hire boiler rooms to pump (done regularly);
7. increase financiers’ net $$ and % without risk (every year since 96)
8. sell stem cells (been being done for over a year without report of any sales)
9. cash checks from hextend license and distribute to financiers  to keep the door open,(done every year from 2000 to april this year);
10. get grants, and do work once the $$ are in hand; (limited success with hextend (<$1mm since 2000, studies evidently failed since there was no follow up) $1.6mm a year for 3 years offered by california for stem cells. six month after grant authorised, no reports of money received, but a statement from btim that with $4mm in the bank thy will do no work on th grant project til cash in hand, even tho the grant is for the core of their held-out biz strategy.
11. spin off “subsidiaries) that allow the financers to profit w/o very low risk;
12. use warrants as a play pretty to manipulate the borrow and bring in cash to the treasury (maybe 5 or 6 times in 12 years);
13. paint the tape.

how well is this plan working??
for those who like the story and understand this puppy is about 1% as solid as fnm, i’d suggest a tonne of limit orders ~4, and get out anywhere north of 5 that makes you happy.
that’s 25%. or, if u really like this puppy, open up the limits in a widening ram from 4 7/16, and taper i out over 5 1/4… for 25% plus some free shares.
…since that’s what the players here have been doing since… hmmm…. ‘96???
what was it that happened in 96? that’s about when biotime started paying al kingsley for “advice.”

Posted under business

someone suggested to me that i was paid to bash biotime (btim.ob). i replied that the paid bashing on the net was being done by steven seinberg, chief financial officer (cfo) of biotime, in posts to the securities and exchange commission.  it is of interest possibly to note that  some anonymous person publicly stated a day or 4 ago that biotime was about to receive a $5mm grant.  That’s the kind of world where bucket shops and boiler rooms thrive: people doing honest analysis must be “paid bashers” while people doing mindless and dishonest cheerleading to protect teir positions are considered “loyal shareholders.”
here’s an example f what i mean:

the 8k filed on 0417 describing what happened on 0415:

The maturity date of our Revolving Line of Credit has been extended to December 1, 2009 with respect to $2,669,282 in principal amount of loans. (a revolving line of credit for $2.669mm got a new date, 7 1/2 month away.)

“We repaid $223,834 of principal and accrued interest on loans that matured on April 15, 2009 and were not extended.
(some part of the credit line was shut off, and paid out. does biotime bother to be honest enough to say which part?)

” In addition, certain lenders exercised their right to exchange $572,404 of principal and accrued interest on loans for an aggregate of 473,131 of our common shares.”
Does biotime bother to say how much of the $572k was principal and how much interest?  some loans were at 12%.
if one speculates that 12% is the figure, and 1 year the time period, then the lender lost oportunity for 1 year on apx $511k, and then was traded for 473k shares, for a basis of 1 3/32 ish…. ($1.08).
And actually, its worse than that. How??
becuase, to use a term from aother world, biotime had to pay vigourish on the loan. it was forced to give for free  91,526 shares, based on a 6% iterest rate, to the lenders.
91,526 is therefore 6% of what? 6% of the $2mm comes to $160,156. and that converts to 91,256 shares how? on a basis of 1 3/4 ($1.75 a share).
does this sound like an invented number?
biotime identifies this number:
“Promissory notes that were exchangeable for our common shares at a price of $1.50 and Embryome Sciences common stock at $2.50 until April 15, 2009, may now be exchanged for our common shares at $1.75 per share”
and i offer that as evidence of the soundness of this analysis.

a coupl;e of days later 14ds were filed with the sec, and the movement from the dtc to the recipients had to cross the tape. it crossed it at prevailing prices f the moment, cuasing some to see a “rally” which they traded into and or out of.
However, the idea that the buyers actually paid anything more than is stated above is a fiction.
Biotime would, imho, have a moral and fiduciary duty to identify it as a fiction.
Did it?
ask the reporters who called (or were they called??) what the ceo, dr michael west said.
then the prudent speculator has a metric for the integrity of the “science” of biotime.

the “good news” in this 8 k is that the exchange price isn;t 16 cents.
the hoest news is that this is the 5th amendment to a credit agreement that is nowhere near being retired, and there is no evidence in the 10k as to how it ever will be.
bottom line?
people buying biotime stock are not buying equity in biotime, bcuase there is no equity except patents 1/2 way thru their life.  they are supporting the acquisition of biotime by al kingsley and neal bradshear, who are paying next to nothing for it.

” We may borrow up to an additional $830,718 under our revolving line of credit if we elect to do so and are able to obtain additional loan commitments from our current lender or from new lenders.”

notice how bio time cannot, unnder thee covenenants borrow $1 mm from somebody new.
notice how biotime evidently needs permission from the current creditors to eve look for financing, up to the $830 mark.

Posted under business

let’s talk about biotime, as a classic story of how to read a tape, a chart, hear a story, and watch the trader get screwed.

recently th stock has been "very active". rumours started a few month ago about obama liking stem cells, and oddly enough biotime was suddently in th stem cell business.

volume kept slowly increasing, and the ticker moved up to a 4 bagger for some sharp traders. i commented on this elsewhere.

but in a "story stock" sooner or reality tere needs be a reality.

and here it is:" The maturity date for the amended line of credit has been extended from November 15, 2008 to April 15, 2009. As of November 17, 2008, certain lenders elected to convert $1,050,000 in principal and $62,013 of accrued interest on their loans to 1,112,013 BioTime common shares."

:"$16,956 in investor relations expenses"
biotime continues its long term trend of selling stock to meet "expenses" and continues to do nohing. ho many years between phase ii trials for hextend, and the end of phase ii for pentalyte? 10 and counting…10 years to demonstrate one stasticially verifiable outcome. in the meantim, hextend works. hextend works, no matter hat shortsellers wanted to say about it.
  what doesn’t work is the revenue model. becuase of the, lol, "management team."

so… for a couple of months the pump and dump specialist were paid a lot of stock and cash to create some action for btim.
  how many share were shorted into the run? at what prices?
 the average "investor" or trader will never know. never.
 becuase nasd allows insamely late reporting on short interest.
 and if te short was covered inside a 30 day reporting period, to the guy at te end of the chain, it never happned.
 and then, one fine day, and i specifically asked people "where are these shares coming from" a million shares "changed hands" that is, went from treasury to street, and the exchange registered the traansaction.
 a level ii scren would probably have shown bloks of 50k hitting th tape.
 and some people would have nibbled in to that stream, and bought more.
 the stock ended down that day. but the volume average will be distroted for 3 months, and then come crashing down. in the meantime, brokers and hypesters will tell cleints, yes it was down, but on far below average volume…don;t worry, be happy.
   in th meantime..there’s <$60 cash on hand, and another loc for another million bux. incoming cash is eaten by debt service:
"Royalty revenues recognized for that three-month period were $341,391…
For the nine months ended September 30, 2008, we incurred a total of $366,795 of net interest expense," ….
   so what does btim offer to anyone wanting to roll it up or be rolled bu it?
   i’m still seeing 5/8 coming as a price. i had said within 60 days of the new dc admin. it might be a while later, becuase of the effectiveness of the pump.
   but based on anyt f/a, cmbined with th story, 3/16 is actually high for the actual value by p/e, (negative) p/s call it 12 for generosity,8 for a norm), or eps (stated unknown becuase of military sales) or, lol… 2x book.
  

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