Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

The State of Florida offers a warning to the prudent speculator. After 62 years of non-ending growth from cash glow coming in from other parts of the economy, Florida lost 58k people this past year–to outflow.
Florida has, since the end of wwii and various real estate schemes that have been hoin on since the time when the land was stolen from the Seminoles been building an economy based on importing cash flow–retirement checks–that would be never ending, because, as keynes saod, “in the long run we’ll be dead.”–at which point heirs would either bring their retirement cash to florida, or sell the land to those who would.
In order to sustain this model, housing and other resources had to be provided to a labouring class who would then be upsold into throwing more cash into the system, for the benefit of the insiders and “good ole boys” who lived in their mansions using pension systems as sharecroppers.
However, Florida, being subject to hurricanes, increasingly; being subject to power shortages when “nimby” operates over and over; being subject to needing to educate the children of the working class to higher and higher standards (in comparison to the 1 room school houses of the starting gate for all this madness);being subject to immigration pressures; being subject to the corruption of any bubble model–and may the prudent speculator hear me clearly on this: the corruption of any bubble model–finally, in order to stay alive must bring its utility rates, insurance rates, and tax rates up to a level that sustains the demand.
Miami-Dade is 5+% short of necessary cash to run crumbling services ($427mm/7.8bb). Never mind that it is $427 mm…that’s a “sound byte”.
Look at the 5+%. The distance between g&a and cash flow is the part that counts. As long as it can be predicted accurately–1 year, 3 years, 5 years–that g&a exceeds inflow from revs by more than 3%, th banking community an the investment community will legitimately stay away, or else demand higher control and ownership of the g&a.
That is what is happening in california. That is what is happening in Florida. That is what is happening in many small cap stocks.
The prudent speculator will always have “time to cash flow??” as a question.
“Investors” will have “net positive cash flow?” as a question–but speculators who roam story stocks, bright ideas, unproven tech, or the “next big thing” as their hunting ground cannot ask that question.
But if they do not ask, “other than selling stock, where does revenue exceed g&a and how fast??” they are going to get damaged.
And the running dogs of the “good ole boys” will just keep putting out power points at dog&pony shows, looking for the next crop of sheep.
“partnerships” and “purchased licenses” and “new alliances” are the condo-flipping tools of the equity market. “revenues from” are the tools of those who grow the economy.

Posted under business, markets