actc stats
1.54 bb o/s.
rate of change in o/s, ruffly 7% per 1/4…..
requires $12mm more in revenue with no increase in shares or spending to get to $.00001 ebitda.
give them a break and say the dilution rate drops to 4%.
give an irrationally optimistic 2 years to fda approval.
2.1 bb shares actually only changes the required net increase in revenue above g&a, r&d, cog to be $56k.
thus, we’re still left with actc being required to increase gross revs by $12mm, with no increase in spending.
let’s pretend that actc can get something to mkt with a 50% margin. that means a $24mm increase in sales to achieve $0.00001 ebitda. giving actc an astronomically high par of 300 ebitda gives a stock price of ???
1/32.
in any world inhabited by real people, the trip from a handful of patients to an fda phase iii trial completion and acceptance is more than 2 years, and has a price tag–let’s call it $12-30mm.
raising the cash by selling stock is in the neighborhood of another 150mm shares more than “normal growth.” the odds on an fda approved procedure sending more than $10k a patient back to actc are small. the odds on more than 12k procedures smaller yet.
actc is this currently trading 6x higher than it will ever be able to achieve as anything except tickets to chickenpoop bingo.
Posted under business
This post was written by admin on June 2, 2011
