Baltbear on Finance markets are like marshmallows

i am increasingly reminded of the fact that people think “science” is a talking animal, that “says” and therefore has an oracular value to point to wealth.
as an 11k year running joke, it used to have great value.
here’s why not: ticker abcd:obb is developing a fail safe 1x vaccination that adds 5 years to life expectancy, and sells for $1 a dose.
let’s get semi real and price humasn life world wide at $4k a year. $20k times 7 bb people:
this is a >>>>$140 trillllllion<<<<< drug.  that’s what “the science” is worth.
in the course of moving from “development stage company” to fda approved product maker abcd.obb tranches out 2bb shares for $600mm, and……
it >>>succeeds<<<<.
the cog thru the factory is $0.60. the distro cost makes delivery a $5 purchase.
this gives a reasonable shot at 4 billion customers over the first 5 years, and an additional 2 billion over the patent life. (becuase outside of the g-7, lotttsa people will die before they have $5 to spend.)
7 billion over 17 years: $412mm in revenues per year.  $164mm a year to g&a of, let’s call it $30mm.
let’s add 400mm shares of options that strike @1,
while the puppy was trading 5/16…
on day of fda approval, abcd goes to 2, and keep rocketing, cause after all….”we all know” and 400mm shares option out to cash.
$133mm in revs to 2.4 billion in shares, w/ share price at 12x sales….. this puppy gets stable @ 21/32.
that’s what “the stock” is worth.
that’s all.
and it’s just that simple.
and the guys who trade into accumulation on the capitualtions and rallys along the line and have a basis of 1/16 on the day the “news” sends this puppy to 6 will make more $$ than the company ever will.
and those playing in the space between will be both agora and cramer, barron’s and ibd, and everybody in between.
and in the meantime, Fortuna? the wealth Goddess??
“She says, Hey babe
Take a walk on the wild side
I Said, Hey baby
Take a walk on the wild side
And the coloured girls go
Doo do doo do doo do do doo..

Posted under business