to complete the triple crown of pure stem stocks, let’s look at international stem cell stocks, isco.ob,
since the isco 10k was filed yesterday. the exact same metric used to give the most generous speculative value is in play on isco, actc and btx.
i note that i have been highly amused at the ever so expected reaction of actc true believers to the simple facts of the actc 10k. new or casual readers are invited to notice that i have never said to anyone “don’t buy actc.” i have said it’s a pure whore stock used to fund a cult. somehow, many people choose to be offended by that rather than deal with it, carry condoms, and get on with it.
prudent speculators use actual due diligence to learn the story behind the story, and keep those facts wrapped around their time with the whores.
de naturis, after a while any whore is worth her worth, julia roberts as pretty woman, or goldman sachs.
anyone wanting a quant for that can look at properly inflation adjusted charts for biotime, actc or isco.
“buy and hold” for biotime would be slightly less than flat. actc is a ski jump into nowhere. that has no effect on the millions of dollars made playing marbles, poker, craps or chicken poop bingo with the stock. in fact, the money made demonstrates that those games are exactly all that is going on.
but..whatever… the isco 10k:
sec issues: none. unlike btx.
isco tranched out enuff to run on for awhile, even as did the other 2. isco is proud of its patents, just like the other 2. isco spent goodly $$ improving its plant, just as btx did.
cash @ 1x
At December 31, 2010, our cash and cash equivalents totaled $5,782,027.
equipment @ 1x the 10k shows ~185k. i’m rounding that up to $250k, since the 10k is discussing change, not total.
patents @ 3x
no royalties were received, i/p estate = 0.
i strongly note that i am bothered by that. and it has a a major effect on where i go from here.
specifically, i recall that isco put out a press release in 2010 talking about negotiating i/p leases into europe.
there was some serious “board” discussion about pricing the terms of that deal into the future value of isco. this was at the height of the “replace rabbits” chatter
there was never an 8k.
the 10k says there was never a deal.
in my pov that actuallly makes the isco i/p worth less than 0, and i am gonna price it that way: -$2mm.
sux for isco. whatever.
sales x 50
:”We have recognized revenue from product sales of $1,121,164″
a necessary note on sales: “cost of sales for the year ended December 31, 2010 were $724,641 or 46% of sales, compared to $789,705 or 70% of sales for the year ended December 31, 2009. Cost of sales included, salaries related to manufacturing, third party manufacturing costs, raw materials, general laboratory supplies and an allocation of overhead.”
being old school, i prefer cost of goods be a separate item with cost of sales. can’t see it. on a positive side, this allows a certain kind of accuracy not visible when such costs are bloating g&a without any information about what generally is being admin’d.
cash and physical ~ $6mm
i/p = -$2mm x3 = -$6mm.
sales @ 50x: $56mm
As of March 18, 2011, we had 75,689,728, shares of common stock outstanding,
74 cents. call it 3/4. that’s the “worth.”
can anybody trade isco into accumulation to a basis <3/4?
nibble, nibble, nibble.
is isco a rational choice for accumulation in the stem sector?
actc is much easier to accumulate @ worth.
as a multiple, btx trades farrrr higher than its worth,
making it somewhat easier.
which is least likely to implode from here?
which is most likely to have that 50x sales fantasy become dilution protection?
so, out of these 3 whores, which has the most teeth and the least std ?
my clients in isco have a basis @ ~1.
some have underwater trading positions averaging < 1 5/8.
my call for isco, made march 2010 was 2 1/2 by end of march 11.
how come? the i/p is the answer.
can that change in a heartbeat?
could such a change take this puppy thru 3?
no problem. look at btx or actc.
a year from now, any rationality in these 3 stories will need tighter testing.
the one most likely to survive the stress testing?
how come? any change in its i/p status, combined with present rate of progress on skin care will expand the “worth” to close to mkt clearing price, and the whore chasers will thence explode the price.
Posted under business
This post was written by admin on March 26, 2011