when to catch a falling knife

here’s an amusing 5 day, that could be seen as a sudden news related rally and digestion.

5 day chart

On the other hand, here’s another chart

Sadly, they are for the same ticker. So, where do you buy this puppy?? the theory of never catch a falling knife says not until it breaks below the bollinger’s…which currently is under 2. that will of course change.

by reading the filings you can get the sense that somebody wants this puppy at 4+ for long enough to get onto a national mkt (it;s currently :obb)

also in the filings is the news that warrants that strke @ 2 are all over the place.. bad.

also in the “news” is that aforeign money will be aiming at it. good.

where’s the balance point???

looking at the chart & the filings together, shows me a little shelf there just under 4.. like 3 7/8. given that the news is positive for the foreseeable future, that there had to be a lotttt of shorting at 6+, and only moderate sigs of covering thus far, placing decent sized orders all over 3 3/4 to 4 1/8 will probably get some fills.

and the bounce back on the next “news” will aim back close to 5, allowing limit sells at 4 1/2 to executre fairly quickly (th annual meeting is within 2 weeks and the pump will be getting pumped).

that’s ruffly 12 1/2 % in ruffly 2 weeks. an apr the prident speculator can live with.

when the chart says run and the boiler rooms say buy, the prident speculator says, lemme go read the filings.

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Posted under business, markets

This post was written by admin on September 29, 2009

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